Is Jennifer Lopez really leaving 'American Idol?' 12 reasons why maybe not

You've read all the reports -- "exclusive! Jennifer Lopez to leave "American Idol" after this season!" -- and maybe even believe them because, after all, she will leave "American Idol" one of these days. So will Randy and so will Steven Tyler. Everybody leaves...eventually.

But is she leaving after this year? Here are 12e reasonable reasons why this is all probably bogus. (Hint, it's mostly about Britney.)

1.) J.Lo has  deployed underlings to sow the rumors, not facts. I mean come on! "A friend close to J.Lo." Gimme a break! J.Lo's a corporation; it's like saying, "a friend close to General Electric tells me..." For God's sake, she has an army of PR personnel that are sent out to the tab press to tell them whatever she needs to tell them. 

2.) J.Lo - like any well-run corporation - has good advice. She knows how Ryan Seacrest and Matt Lauer and so many others play this game to their great advantage. She's doing the same.

3.) J.Lo has had her "friends" tell the tabs that she's  just too busy to do "Idol." Just too busy...That's like Goldman Sachs sayings it's "just too busy" to do investment banking, or NBC saying it's "jjust too busy" to air any TV programs...This IS the job, and all the other stuff - the movies and records and tours and who-knows-what - are secondary to this.

4.) J.Lo knows that her resurgent career has resurged in large measure because of this gig. 

5.) J.Lo knows the minute she jumps off she'll disappear - just another big star who made another dumb move - and all those things she been "so busy" with will become much less important in the scheme of things. .

SEE PHOTOSJennifer Lopez

6.) J.Lo knows that Britney is her chief rival next season. She'd look like a coward ducking a fight if she left now.

7.) J.Lo also knows  how much fun it will be to bury "The X Factor" next season, and knows that she'll be the one holding the shovel. Sure they're on the same network, but if she stays, "Idol" will remain far and away the biggest franchise, and she'll be Queen Bee, and the biggest pop star in the world, while Brit will someone trying to prop up flagging "X."

 8.) J.Lo knows that there's so much more money to be made -- much, much more. Double what's she's getting now ($15-20M) for a few hours of work, figuratively speaking, a year. 

 9.) J.Lo started having her "friends" spread all this talk about being "too busy" right around the very moment Britney signed on to "X." Coincidence? 'Course not. Timing's brilliant because Fox and Fremantle know that if Brit got what she got (yes, reports say at much as $50 million, believe 'em or not, and Fox, of course, knows the precise figure since it's paying it) they've got to step up to the plate, too. This is a negotiating tactic, period. 

10.) J.Lo's pretty good on this show and she knows it. Yeah, the Three Amigos tend to be a bit hyperbolic in their praise, but she has the unique ability to make it sound sincere. She's a very good performer and knows it; leave the world's biggest platform and everyone will forget her.

11.) J.Lo played this exact same game last year.

12.) If J.Lo was really going to quit, she'd quit; not have "friends" say she's 'too busy."