Nation's poverty rate for 2024 shows modest decline, census survey shows, but analysts say 2025 numbers may reflect economic tumult

The nation's poverty rate declined modestly in 2024, while the real median household income of $83,000-plus was not statistically changed from 2023. But local analysts say they expect next year's numbers to reflect ongoing economic tumult under the Trump administration.

The nation's poverty rate was 10.6% in 2024, which a U.S. Census Bureau official characterized as a "modest" 0.4% decline from the year before, with an estimated 35.9 million living in poverty, according to the bureau's Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement, released Tuesday.

Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said: "As far as the income of everyday Americans goes, the dial hasn't moved much in the last few years, even as the wealthiest got wealthier," Levy said.

"And the fact that the poverty rate has remained the same actually means we've gone backwards in addressing the needs of the poor," he said, noting that local numbers, which the Census Bureau is scheduled to release, will show the impact for Long Island.

The survey estimated that the "real median household income" was $83,730 in 2024 — not considered to be statistically different from the estimate of $82,690 in 2023. The median income is the midway point of income where half is above that income point and half below.

The lack of significant changes led some local advocates and commentators to note the 2024 data did not yet reflect what they considered ongoing economic upheaval. Budget cuts to Medicaid and other programs that aid the indigent, as well as the impact of global tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, could have an impact on the poverty rate, they said. 

"With everything that's going on with 2025, I don't think this [2024 data] will tell us much of anything about what to expect next year, which could be significantly worse, just because of all the uncertainty in the economy and all the things the [Trump] administration has been doing, which in my view, is damaging the economy," said John Rizzo, a professor of health economics at Stony Brook University. 

Jeffrey Reynolds, president and CEO of Family and Childrens Association, or FCA, a Garden City-based services agency, said he was concerned about the impact of the recently passed federal budget legislation that affects anti-poverty programs.

"I’m more interested in the numbers going forward," Reynolds said. "It’s easy to imagine those numbers, when it comes to the poverty rate, will likely change pretty dramatically given what’s happened in Washington: the [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program] cuts, the potential Medicaid changes they’re still writing legislation on, the shifts in the Essential Plan [in New York] because some pieces of Obamacare have disappeared." 

"I wonder about the effect on women and children, particularly related to the SNAP cuts," Reynolds said. "And I worry about what the Medicaid changes mean for vulnerable populations." 

There were some notable differences in earnings between men and women and in racial/ethnic comparisons. For example, the bureau said in its income report: "Between 2023 and 2024, median income increased by 5.1% for Asian households and 5.5% for Hispanic households, while it declined by 3.3% for Black households." 

The 2024 median income for Asians nationally was $121,700; for non-Hispanic whites, $92,530; for Hispanics (which includes those of any race), $70,950; and for Blacks, $56,020.

Men's earnings outpaced women's, according to the report. "The median earnings of men who worked full-time, year-round ($71,090) increased by 3.7% in 2024 compared to 2023, while median earnings of women who worked full-time, year-round ($57,520) did not change significantly," the report said.

And on health insurance coverage in 2024, an estimated 27.1 million people, or 8% of the nation's population, were not covered, according to the report. Most people (92.0% or 310 million) had health insurance for some or all of the year.

The Official Poverty Measure — which considers only pretax money income, uses a poverty threshold that reflects "three times the cost of a minimum food diet in 1963," and is only "inflation-adjusted" the bureau said in its report — was $31,812 for a family of two adults and two children. Local advocates have long complained that this threshold was too low and failed to capture the true rate of poverty in a high-cost region like Long Island. 

The Supplemental Poverty Measure, which takes into account government cash assistance and other benefits, while also factoring in regional housing costs, and expenses, such as medical and child care costs, showed a poverty rate of 12.9% in 2024, not statistically different from 2023.

By Olivia Winslow

olivia.winslow@newsday.com@newsollie