Cuomo's 5 potential pitfalls in governor's race

Andrew Cuomo seems unstoppable. With more than $16 million in his campaign treasury, a 64 percent approval rating in the polls and a 40-point lead on each of his GOP opponents, the Democratic attorney general appears ready to cruise to the governor's mansion.

"If you're giving odds," said Baruch College's Douglas Muzzio, "You're betting heavily Cuomo." But Election Day is 157 days away and the last four years -- Gov. Eliot Spitzer's prostitution scandal, the state Senate coup, Gov. David A. Paterson's six-day campaign -- have shown that anything can happen in New York politics.

Here are five potential pitfalls for Cuomo that could hinder his campaign, according to political observers.

1. An all-white ticket depresses minority turnout in New York City

Cuomo's choice for lieutenant governor, Rochester Mayor Robert Duffy, ensures that every candidate for statewide office will be white for the first time since 1990.

C.W. Post political scientist Stanley Klein, who also is a GOP committeeman, said black and Hispanic voters are unlikely to flock to GOP contenders Rick Lazio, Steve Levy, Carl Paladino or Myers Mermel, but they could stay home on Election Day.

"I would have put a minority woman on the ticket," Klein said. "It's more attractive to a broader base."

Cuomo moved aggressively to avoid any hurt feelings after naming Duffy, phoning the Rev. Al Sharpton and arranging for William Thompson, the African-American former New York City comptroller, and Dominican-born Suffolk Legis. Vivian Viloria-Fisher (D-Setauket) to introduce him at the state party convention last week.

Still, Cuomo's damage control didn't satisfy one prominent Hispanic. State Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. (D-Bronx) said African-Americans and Hispanics "are regarded as secured votes and are not considered for high positions of leadership . . . [and that] is very disappointing."

However, some African-Americans, including Charlie King, executive director of the state Democratic Committee and Assemb. Michael Benjamin (D-Bronx) predicted minority voters would look beyond race to the issues the Cuomo/Duffy ticket stands for.

"People vote for candidates based on the issues, how they are going to help the community, not the race of the candidates," Benjamin said.

2. Cuomo, whose father Mario served three terms as governor, is unable to sell the idea that he's not part of Albany's institutional problem.

Lazio's campaign is already hitting this angle hard, calling him "a central figure in Albany for 30 years" and "a 30-year Albany incumbent."

Cuomo last week fired a pre-emptive strike on this matter -- declaring that he'll only endorse candidates who sign his reform pledge. He drew an instant and predictable response from Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (D-Manhattan): "I don't sign pledges."

The tiff helps Cuomo sell himself as not beholden to established Albany interests, said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.

"As long as he sticks to the script and angers the least amount of people by keeping people focused on the problems in Albany, he'll be fine," Sheinkopf said.

3. Can he take a punch?

Some delegates to last week's state Democratic Convention in Rye Brook recalled Cuomo's quick temper and outbursts as a young man managing his father's gubernatorial campaigns. "He'd scream at you in public and privately work against you," said a veteran lawmaker.

Since Cuomo's withdrawal from the 2002 race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, he has largely held himself in check, observers say. One question is how he will hold up under the pressures of the campaign.

"He's never had to take a big punch in public," said Hofstra University's Lawrence Levy. "And how do you deal with it when people are questioning your integrity and your character? We don't know how he'll deal with it. Will he revert and get angry?"

4. Trouble with the Democratic brand

State Democrats, who recently have controlled the governor's mansion, the Assembly and Senate, haven't distinguished themselves.

One senator, Hiram Monserrate of Queens, was convicted of misdemeanor assault against his girlfriend and later expelled from the Senate. Paterson botched the handling of Caroline Kennedy's interest in the U.S. Senate seat now held by Kirsten Gillibrand and has been ineffective in the budget stalemate. And the New York City-centric Democratic leadership angered suburban voters with the 11-county MTA tax.

"Will voters trust a Democrat after four years of Democratic leadership?" asked Siena pollster Steve Greenberg. "That's what the campaign is all about."

Meanwhile, Republicans will try to tie Cuomo to President Obama's initiatives that they think are unpopular, such as health care reform and the stimulus package.

5. He could fall victim to a surprise scandal

With Cuomo's approval rating at 64 percent, according to the Marist Poll, this may be the GOP's best hope of winning back the governor's mansion.

One needs only to look to Connecticut, where Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal -- the leading contender for the state's open U.S. Senate seat -- apologized last week for saying he served in Vietnam when he was in the Marine reserves stateside.

"Are there any deep dark secrets?" Quinnipiac University pollster Maurice Carroll asked. "If there are, they sure haven't come out in a long public life."

With Elizabeth Moore and James T. Madore