Hurricane season still tracking as 'very active'

At the front end of the Atlantic hurricane season's peak months -- August through October -- forecasters say the season is "shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.

In an update that for the most part affirms an outlook issued in May, the center is projecting a 70 percent chance for 13 to 19 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes, of which three to five could be major -- Category 3 or higher, according to Thursday's news release. That's including the season's named storms to date -- Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dorian.

Confidence is high for an above-normal season "because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized," said Gerry Bell, the center's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. "Also, two of the four named storms to date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season."

Though the center does not project landfalls or regional activity, the message Bell has for Long Islanders and anyone living along the coast is that the bulk of hurricane activity "is yet to come" and "you need to be prepared now."

The season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but hurricanes generally head for Long Island starting around mid-August.

Though the outlook modifications were slight, the update puts hurricane season "back in the conversation," reminding people that they must be vigilant with their plans, said Meghan McPherson, program manager for Adelphi University's emergency management graduate programs.

Still, she said, she doesn't think the need for readiness is such a hard sell as it was before the area's pounding by Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, followed by the devastation of superstorm Sandy.

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It's the notion of "never again" she said, as in, "Never again am I going to get stuck without a generator" -- or batteries or water or "a chain saw to get the tree out of my yard." She advises people to check the federal government's website ready.gov for hurricane preparedness data.

The climate center's update reflects a slightly "reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity," from the center's May report, which projected 13 to 20 named storms, including seven to 11 hurricanes, of which three to six could be major hurricanes, the release said.

Among the contributing factors is a lesser likelihood for the development of La Nina, which brings a "reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season," the release said. Also, "the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions."

Another updated Atlantic hurricane activity forecast, this one from Colorado State University, puts the probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast at 40 percent -- down from an earlier forecast 48 percent -- and in New York State, 4 percent, down from 5.6 percent.

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"We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013," the Aug. 2 report said, "although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic."