Phil Karlin's Mattituck-based fishing boat, the Brianna, has a rebuilt engine and a new coat of paint, but as he returns to Long Island Sound for lobsters this month he is unsure how long he will be allowed to keep at it.

Regulators set to meet in Alexandria, Va., later this month will determine the fate of the Southern New England lobster fishery, a region that includes the Sound and other locally accessible waters. Measures under consideration could include a summer closure of that fishery and further restrictions on the size of landed lobsters.

As it stands, the hard economics of lobstering already limits participants. According to the state DEC, only 375 resident permits were issued in 2009, compared with a high of 1,265 in 1994. The catch in Long Island Sound peaked in 1996 at 8.8 million pounds. By 2009, it had dropped to just over 1 million.

The good news for fishermen appears to be that the meeting and required public comment periods to follow will delay the most severe restrictions. Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission spokeswoman Tina Berger said that unless emergency action is taken, any new regulation probably won't take effect until next year.

But longtime lobstermen like Karlin say the likely options don't bode well.

"We'll see what they say at this meeting," said Karlin. He already supplements his 200-pot lobstering with bottom fishing and conch trapping because "it's hard to make it just on lobsters now."

Jim Gilmore, chief of the marine resources division of the New York Department of Environmental Conservation, said data show the lobster population "is at a very low level" and "something has to be done."

Culprits include predators like striped bass and dogfish, and water temperatures in Long Island Sound above 68 degrees the past few summers.

"The biggest problem seems to be the temperature," he said.

Regulators concede that overfishing likely isn't to blame for the low population, but "it's all we can control," Gilmore said.

Fishermen are preparing to battle against a summer shutdown, even if it happens next year, with Montauk lobsterman Al Schafer noting that June through September is his prime season."That's really when we catch everything," he said. "It'll be murder."

Kim McKown, leader of the DEC's crustacean unit, said a summer closure would do the most to replenish the lobster population because that's when they molt and release eggs, and are most vulnerable. "Closing it [for those months] would be a real protection," she said.

But Schafer said existing measures, including changes in traps that let smaller lobsters escape, need more time.

"You're not catching a one-pound lobster anymore. You have to give that three or four years to work and then see what happens," he said.

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