Long Islanders move to neighboring states

More Long Islanders are moving out than moving in, and while Florida and North Carolina remain top destinations, states neighboring New York are increasingly becoming lures.

The southern migration is easy to explain -- cheaper living costs, milder winters -- but potentially more significant, experts say, is the loss of residents to New Jersey, Connecticut, and to a lesser extent, Pennsylvania.

"The surprise is it's more widely distributed than people typically think," said Seth Forman, chief planner for the Long Island Regional Planning Council.

Overall in two years 70,776 tax filers and their dependents moved away from Long Island while 67,605 moved in, Forman found. The Island's population has grown overall during the past decade, at just under 3 percent, thanks to more births than deaths and international migration.

Forman charted the migration by analyzing federal tax return data for 2008 and 2009, the most recent years available. He used an online program from the Missouri Census Data Center to track people leaving and settling on Long Island, the number of exemptions in a household and income. None of the data used identified individuals.

IRS statistics have long been used to analyze migration patterns, but it excludes some low-income residents who don't file returns and may not include everyone in a household.

The analysis found that Middlesex and Morris counties in New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Conn., were among the top 10 counties getting a net gain of residents from Nassau and Suffolk. Pike County, Pa., was in the top 20.

"We know what motivates them to go to the Sunbelt," said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association, the region's largest business group. "But why go to New Jersey, Connecticut or Pennsylvania? You would think there's not much of a cost [of living] difference."

Kamer and other experts said the trend warrants further study and should draw the attention of policymakers here, because the loss of residents has economic consequences, whether they are retirees with higher incomes or educated, younger workers, she said.

Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University's National Center for Suburban Studies, speculated some Long Island residents may be attracted to neighboring states like New Jersey for jobs and less expensive housing.

"If over time we continue to lose people for economic reasons . . . that tells you something," said Robert Scardamalia, former chief demographer for the New York State Department of Economic Development.

In the Sunbelt, Forman said although Florida continues to be the top destination for Long Islanders, North Carolina, Arizona and Texas "appear to be catching up." The Lone Star State, he noted, has had strong job growth, adding to the allure.

According to Forman's analysis, three Florida counties -- Palm Beach, Marion and Sarasota -- are among the top 20 counties nationwide that received a net gain of Long Islanders over the two-year period.

Palm Beach County, where Jupiter is located, picked up the most of any U.S. county -- 618. Two North Carolina counties -- Wake and Mecklenburg -- combined to have an even larger net gain of Long Islanders, at 1,020. But when counties outside the top 20 are included, Florida is still the leading destination by state, Forman said.

Jessica Cooke Higgins, 26, said she traded Shirley for Jupiter, Fla., two years ago to find a career-starting job -- she works as a personal assistant to a vendor for home shopping networks -- in a place "where I can afford to live."

Higgins' mother, Judie Cooke, 55, may soon follow. She cites the pain of paying $10,000 a year in property taxes for her Shirley home, plus $475 a month for electricity and $900 a month for winter heating oil.

"We just can't afford it up here," said Cooke, who is contemplating a move to Jacksonville, Fla., early next year.

Higgins, who attended Southampton College briefly, chose Florida after taking stock of her life. Last year, she completed her associate degree. This year, she married.

"I love Long Island, I do," she said. "[But] I don't see myself moving back, only because it would cost more."