In race for governor, Blakeman strikes moderate tone in ads to NYC voters

There are ads featuring Republican Bruce Blakeman in some parts of New York City and it's not what Nassau residents have seen.

In Nassau, Blakeman had touted his opposition toward mask wearing in schools, trumpeted his ban on transgender women playing on female sports teams and highlighted his creation of a volunteer squad of armed citizens. 

But while the initiatives captured the attention of conservative television hosts and suburban voters during his reelection for Nassau County executive last year, they have largely disappeared.  Though his social media still highlights some of those themes, there are early signs in the print mailers directed at New York City voters that Blakeman's tone has shifted. As he mounts a run for governor challenging Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul, the two mailers in the city and Westchester now highlight words like "pro-choice," "reasonable," and "moderate."

With fewer than 100 days until the November election, Blakeman's messaging campaign to households outside of Nassau is a marked shift from the red-meat issues that helped get him some of the national spotlight and win reelection as county executive last year, according to a review of ads directed to New York City voters. 

Trailing Hochul in the polls and having little name recognition outside of Nassau County, the  GOP nominee's key message to city voters so far hits on other middle-class fears: Your tax dollars spent on Mayor Zohran Mamdani's socialist agenda. 

The ads read: "Protect your private property rights from Mamdani’s plan to seize control," "Stop the inheritance tax pushed by Hochul-Mamdani," and "Cut income taxes for the middle class." 

Such a move, political experts say, feeds into the strategy by Republicans to secure more than 30% of the vote in New York City to have a viable shot at the governor's mansion. 

Blakeman's campaign spokeswoman, Madison Spanodemos, did not answer questions on whether Blakeman's moderate tone in his ads was intentional. 

Ad appeal 

With affordability issues dominating the race in the wake of Mamdani's success last year, Blakeman is reaching out to voters who are concerned about rising costs but don't qualify or reject the notion that more government assistance will bring them relief.   

Joe Borelli, a former Republican minority leader on the New York City Council, said the Mamdani election showed city voters cared "tremendously" about the cost of living. But in some parts of the city like Borelli's Staten Island district and many parts of Queens and Brooklyn, where homeownership is highest, the far-left path of democratic socialism has put new city voters in play, he said.

"The issue is there," Borelli said. "The cost of living in the city is very high. It's just what path do you want to go down? Democratic socialism or moderate Republicanism?" 

Christopher Malone, a retired political science professor and former provost at Farmingdale State College, said Blakeman needs to define himself statewide and it's not uncommon for candidates to highlight different versions of their identity based on what matters to voters in a particular region, whether it's in the city, suburban or rural.

"He has to find a way to change the narrative that Hochul has pinned on him — rather successfully — that he's nothing but a [President Donald] Trump acolyte," Malone said. 

Blakeman, who said as governor he would be a check on Mamdani, has sought to closely tie Hochul to the prominent democratic socialist leader. State Democrats, who have released few attack ads on Blakeman, have from the start of the campaign highlighted Blakeman's staunch support of Trump, whose approval ratings have cratered statewide to about 30%.

"Blakeman’s biggest problem is that wherever he goes, his record follows: He jacked up Nassau property taxes and blocked affordable housing, and on his most damning policy position — his endless support for Donald Trump — no one’s a more effective messenger than ‘100% MAGA’ Blakeman himself," Hochul campaign spokesman Ryan Radulovacki told Newsday. 

An assist beyond GOP 

According to state Board of Elections figures from earlier this year, New York City has more than six times the number of registered Democrats than Republicans. About 1 million of the more than 5 million active voters are not registered with a political party, however. 

Blakeman, who saw success with Nassau's independent voters last year, would be looking to them again, experts say. 

He may also need to recast himself in the city, experts say, to reach disaffected Democrats worried about their party's move further to the left and waning military support of Israel after the June defeat of moderate congressional candidates in three key New York City districts and closely-watched races nationally this week.

"You kind of need to run three different campaigns at once, for the city, the suburbs and upstate," said Chapin Fay, a Republican political consultant, who isn't working for statewide races this year. "In New York City it's very hard for traditional Republican issues to get any traction. You need to attract non-Republican voters to win."

Fay said he thinks property taxes is still a good issue in the five boroughs because earlier this year Mamdani threatened to raise them, even if it was widely believed to be a move to get more state funding to plug city budget deficits.

"It's a good issue, its timely and newsworthy," Fay said. "But it needs to be targeted. You need to communicate shared values."     

About two-thirds of New York City dwellers rent their homes, and tenants' rights have become a focal point of Mamdani's first few months in office. Property owners have raised concerns about whether they will need to pay more, particularly as recent confusion over the rollout of a new surcharge on second homes has been in the news. The policy on second homes, however, only applies to a few thousand people with the most expensive city residences. 

But it's more than just homeowners: New York City residents also pay a separate income tax of 3% to 4% in addition to a state income tax, which Blakeman has vowed to phase out for single filers making up to $50,000 and joint filers up to $100,000. A similar proposal introduced by state Sen. Steve Rhoads (R-Wantagh), a former Nassau County legislator, that would have cut personal income taxes statewide for taxpayers in those brackets didn't make it out of committee last year.   

Whether this path of addressing the affordability issue can compete with a Democratic agenda of rent freezes, free childcare and city-run grocery stores as pocketbook issues for voters remains unclear. 

"I don't know if it's going to be a successful strategy for him except that going back decades Republicans have been successful in painting the picture of the 'tax and spend' liberal Democrat," Malone said.