Progressive primary wins cloud Schumer's future as Senate Democrats' leader

WASHINGTON — Chuck Schumer’s chances of remaining the top U.S. Senate Democrat next year are becoming more uncertain amid divides that have prompted party primary voters to pick anti-establishment Senate nominees who don't want to keep the New Yorker as leader.

On Tuesday, the Brooklyn Democrat’s leadership future became a bit muddier following progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan's convincing victory over moderate U.S. Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary.

That chalked up yet another primary win by an insurgent Senate candidate over a candidate more aligned with Schumer and the party establishment — and who said if elected in November she will not support Schumer as the party’s Senate leader.

"I appreciate everything that Chuck Schumer has done for Minnesota and for this country. And I think it's time for new leadership," Flanagan reiterated Tuesday in a statement to Newsday through her campaign, sticking to a comment and position she’d been voicing.

Asked about speculation that Schumer’s leadership may be endangered, a spokesman responded, “Senator Schumer is laser focused on one thing: taking back the senate and bringing relief to Americans.” The argument goes that with Schumer as the main campaign architect, an initially brutal Senate map this election cycle has turned into one with real conversation about Democrats seizing the majority.

Overall, Democrats need to flip four seats to take control of the Senate if they can defend all of their current seats. Non-partisan analysts now see as many as eight Republican-held seats in play – with Democrats’ path to the majority likely requiring November election victories by a blend of progressive primary winners as well as moderates recruited by Schumer in more-reddish states like Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska and Texas.

Still, even before Flanagan’s victory Tuesday, scenarios had been percolating over the possibility of Schumer being replaced by the Senate Democratic Caucus. That would be a seismic toppling carrying huge ramifications to Long Island and the rest of New York State, which have long benefited from projects and funding that top congressional leaders can steer.

Republicans now hold 53 seats to the Democrats’ 45, while two independents caucus with Democrats. The two parties pick their leaders for the upcoming two-year session after the election.

Schumer, 75, has led Senate Democrats since 2017, including as the majority leader from 2021 to early this year. Some observers think he will be tough to oust, particularly if Democrats move back into the majority.

"Too early to tell. And never smart to undersell Schumer futures," veteran New York Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf said.

Progressive wins

Flanagan joins other primary-winning progressives in Maine and Michigan who've taken stands against Schumer — Troy Jackson and Abdul El-Sayed. They had aligned with socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and energized their supporters with stances that also include opposition the government influence of corporations and aggressively confronting Republican President Donald Trump.

The party’s Senate nominee in Illinois, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, also wants Schumer to move on as leader, as well as Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, who is challenging Sen. Ed Markey in their state’s Sept. 8 primary.

"I believe Schumer has a 50-50 shot at retaining leadership," Donald Nieman, a professor of history and provost emeritus at Binghamton University, said Tuesday.

Others nonpartisan analysts agree Schumer's leadership is in some jeopardy. But most also underscore that there’s a lot left to play out before those internal Senate leadership elections are held, including — most obviously — which party will win control of the chamber.

University at Buffalo political scientist Shawn Donahue said it will be hard to dislodge Schumer as leader, particularly if Democrats do take the majority. Winning the majority will likely require some anti-Schumer primary victors to win their general elections races — thus giving them a say in internal voting on leadership.

But Donahue also notes that such a flip in party control would mean candidates that Schumer has recruited — such as former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mary Peltola in Alaska — also likely will have had to win their general election races in their red states.

The larger notion is that if Democrats win the majority, there would be enough loyal allies and newcomers who benefited from Schumer‘s fundraising and other support to keep him in control.

Election test

The real threat to Schumer’s party leadership is if the Democrats fail to take control of the Senate, said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, and others.

"He would not only have to deal with angry progressives, but even some of his longtime allies frustrated that his leadership didn’t deliver in key races," Levy said.

Along with some Senate wannabes, several sitting Democratic colleagues have also not committed to backing Schumer to stay as leader. Among them are Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who is mentioned by some as a potential Schumer successor and was in Minnesota over the weekend stumping for Flanagan.

Schumer did not publicly weigh in on the Minnesota primary, which served in many respects as a proxy fight in larger Democratic Party divides over ideology and future paths. But other party establishment members close to him did publicly endorse Craig.

Meanwhile, left-wing senators Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, backed Flanagan. She now enters this fall's general election race against the GOP’s nominee, former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, knowing the last time Minnesota elected a Republican senator was in 2002.

Focus on Schumer

The focus on Schumer himself as an election issue has mushroomed, although he is not up for reelection until 2028.

Schumer's overall public standing is low. That’s come, in part, amid internal party differences over Israel, the war in Iran and other ideological and generational shifts. There are also complaints that Democratic leaders in Washington have been too reluctant to take more confrontational responses to the Trump administration’s conservative agenda.

Last year’s rise and election of democratic socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani added fuel to the debate over party direction.

Results of a Politico poll released in June reflected that 47% of people surveyed who plan to vote Democratic think Schumer should not remain the party leader. Only 28% said he should keep his role.

This election season has exacerbated criticisms of Schumer, including complaints his Democratic campaign has worked, sometimes behind the scenes, to boost preferred establishment primary candidates, discouraging grassroots challengers. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is chaired by Schumer ally and fellow New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, of Albany.

Nieman and others note that those mentioned as potential successors, such as Van Hollen, 67, do not necessarily represent a new generation of leadership. Other Democrats mentioned as potential replacements are Sens. Brian Schatz, of Hawaii, and Chris Murphy, of Connecticut, who are both 53.

Reelection challenge?

Donahue said it still feels more like Schumer’s bigger challenge may be in 2028, if he chooses to run for a sixth Senate term.

"After several (democratic socialist) wins in 2026 primaries in New York City, one has to think someone would emerge to challenge Schumer, and if so, would he consider retirement?" Donahue said.

He notes someone many Democrats and others have their eye on as a potential challenger is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx/Queens), "who would be a heavyweight challenger and likely clear the anti-Schumer field" if she does not run for president.

As for Flanagan and her primary victory on Tuesday, Schumer and Gillibrand issued a joint statement of congratulations, saying "she will fight tirelessly against Trump’s harmful agenda that has made their lives harder," and "she will be a powerful advocate for working people."