Approval of Congress plummets, but few members are likely to pay a price

WASHINGTON — Public disapproval of Congress has matched an all-time high. President Donald Trump has usurped swaths of legislative authority, including launching military operations in Iran without seeking approval. The number of bills enacted into law, and votes taken, have sunk to the lowest level in decades.

And yet, most congressional incumbents this fall will win reelection and return to office in January. In fact, only 16 of the 435 House seat races are seen by nonpartisan political handicappers as true toss-ups.

"It's comical, shocking or nauseating, depending on your mood or perspective," said Donald Nieman, a history professor at Binghamton University. "And it's not good for the country, because we get more disgusted with important institutions like Congress but we keep sending people back who contribute to the dysfunction."

The fact that incumbent members of the House are reelected at rates above 90% is no secret. Incumbents have built-in big advantages like wide name recognition and ability to raise stockpiles of campaign cash. The last time the overall reelection rate for House members dipped under 90% was in 2012, at 89.8%.

But this year, Americans are expressing particularly dismal views of lawmakers’ job performance in Washington, as midterm elections approach with Republicans controlling the House by four seats but holding a firmer grip in the Senate.

In fact, disapproval by Americans of Congress is at 86%, tying the record high, according to a Gallup Poll released in April.

"There is stiff competition for the worst Congress in American history," said Glenn Altschuler, a Cornell University professor of American studies. But in important ways, he said, "This do-nothing Congress is uniquely bad."

Safe districts

Still, there are fewer than three dozen House seat races in this fall’s midterm elections projected to be competitive by nonpartisan handicappers such as The Cook Political Report. Of those, only 16 races are viewed as actual  toss-ups,  not leaning one way or the other.

Overall, more than three-fourths of the 435 House seats are projected as safely staying in the Republican or Democrat columns in this fall’s elections. This comes despite the retirements of 57 House members — 20 Democrats and 37 Republicans — creating open seat races that do not require a challenger to topple an entrenched incumbent.

Congressional experts, along with current and former lawmakers, say Democrats could be riding some headwinds toward flipping the narrow GOP majority control of the House in the elections this fall.

But talk of a Democratic "blue wave" or political "tsunami" is mostly dismissed. "The eras of picking up 40 seats, 60 seats, are behind us," former Long Island Democratic Rep. Steve Israel said.

As much as anything, partisan redistricting has carved an electoral landscape in which "there just aren’t that many competitive districts left," said Israel, a past chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Gerrymandering districts to either lopsided red or blue majorities adds to the country’s polarization. Often, voters in such districts would rather have a root canal than vote for a candidate put up by the "enemy" — even if they are disgusted with Congress' performance overall.

"Most members of Congress don’t wake up in the morning concerned they are going to lose their election from someone from the opposite party," Israel added. "They do wake up worrying they are going to lose their primary elections from someone in the flank of them from their own party."

Nieman said probably no more than 10% or 15% of voters are truly noncommitted. "So, the chance of big swings between parties in the House is remote."

Party control

That does not mean this year's election won't have an impact.

It would take only a small net pickup of seats to give Democrats the House majority. A flip could have big impacts on Trump’s final two years in the White House, including stepped-up congressional investigations into the actions of his administration.

A majority switch also would impact Long Island Republicans Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) and Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) who, even if reelected to what are considered safe seats, would lose clout if they were in the minority.

Garbarino would lose his chairmanship of the Committee on Homeland Security — the only chairmanship of a full House committee held by a Long Islander. LaLota would go from majority to minority member status on the powerful Appropriations Committee.

LaLota responded by referring to former House Speaker Tip O'Neill, a Democrat who found ways to work with Ronald Reagan, and famously said, "all politics is local."

LaLota said his ability to deliver for Long Island — including his role in the increase of the State and Local Tax deduction cap — may be why his district is less competitive.

Garbarino similarly pointed to the SALT cap and various other funding he’s helped to deliver for Long Island.

But LaLota does agree that aggressive gerrymandering on both sides of the political aisle has helped erode political discourse.

"I’m preparing draft language for a constitutional amendment and will be asking my Problem Solvers colleagues to join me in supporting it, requiring redistricting no more than once every 10 years and making compactness the leading principle in how district lines are drawn," LaLota told Newsday.

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) said, "Congress is broken. Our country is divided and intense gerrymandering has made it worse. We need more competitive congressional districts that will force members of Congress to listen to their frustrated constituents and to do the work necessary to fix things and make their lives better."