David Crowley's razor-thin primary win sets up Wisconsin governor's race against Trump's pick

MADISON, Wis. — David Crowley's razor-thin primary win over a democratic socialist sets up a Wisconsin governor's race against a Republican congressman who has voted with President Donald Trump 100% of the time, potentially giving moderate Democrats an ideal matchup as Trump's approval ratings sag in the swing state.

Crowley overcame Francesca Hong in dramatic fashion in Tuesday's primary, stunning pundits and pollsters who had long placed Hong as the front-runner. That means Crowley's challenger, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, must pivot to face a Democrat known for working across the aisle with Republicans as the county executive in Milwaukee, the state’s largest source of Democratic voters.

Crowley immediately leans into Tiffany's ties with Trump

After a unity event with Hong and others on Wednesday, Crowley pledged to build a broad coalition — including Hong's progressive, populist backers — to take on Tiffany by zeroing in on the Republican's support for the Make America Great Again movement.

“This isn’t establishment versus progressive. This isn’t insider versus outsider,” Crowley said. “This is Democrats defeating a MAGA extremist in Congressman Tom Tiffany and that’s what we should be focusing on moving forward.”

It will be easier for Tiffany to pivot away from his ties with Trump and unpopular federal policies because he’s running for governor and not Congress, said former Republican Gov. Scott Walker, a Trump supporter.

“He’s got to be on point, on message every time that comes up, and say, ‘That’s not what’s on the ballot,’” Walker told The Associated Press. “What’s on the ballot is who’s going to be governor the next four years.”

But former Republican state Senate Majority Leader Dale Schultz, who opposes Trump, said Crowley makes the path “way harder for Tiffany.”

“It's going to force the campaign back to the issues that people care about like affordability, the war in Iran and the cost of healthcare,” Schultz said.

Tiffany represents a broad swath of Wisconsin’s rural, conservative north woods. Trump won the state in 2024 and 2016, but lost in 2020. All three elections were decided by less than a percentage point. Crowley’s win on Tuesday was even more narrow — less than half a point, further cementing Wisconsin’s reputation for close elections.

Democrats look for a trifecta in Wisconsin

Democrats savored the shift in focus from their chaotic primary to the general election against Tiffany, an opponent they’ve long seen as vulnerable. They hope to capitalize on Trump’s low approval ratings to retain control of the governor’s office and flip both chambers of the Legislature to earn full control of Wisconsin state government for the first time since 2010.

Just as Crowley highlighted his Republican opponent's ties to Trump, Tiffany began the general election campaign with a message connecting Crowley to Hong.

“I’ve said all along that there’s not a dime’s worth of difference between these Democrat candidates,” Tiffany said in a statement Wednesday. “His record in Milwaukee County shows exactly what Wisconsin would get: mismanage the government, run up the bill, and raise your taxes to pay for it.”

And it may be tough for Crowley to connect with the young people who were among the nearly 40% of primary voters who supported Hong, Republican strategist Rusty Schultz predicted.

“Making sure they come out in November will be no small feat,” he said.

Crowley's surprise win came after he had dropped out of the race

Crowley, 40, has been the head of Wisconsin's largest county since 2020. Prior to that, he served just over three years in the state Assembly. In 2023, as county executive, Crowley helped spearhead a bipartisan deal in the Legislature that sent more state aid to Milwaukee and local communities.

Crowley dropped out of the governor’s race on July 8, saying he didn’t see a path to victory. He rejoined it on July 18, less than a month before Tuesday’s primary. With the backing of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, a fellow moderate who crisscrossed the state with him in the final week, Crowley pulled out the narrow win on the argument that he was the better matchup against Tiffany.

“Obviously Hong was the never-ending gift in terms of one gaffe after another, wasn’t really ready for primetime,” Walker said. “But Crowley didn’t get any real scrutiny either.”

Crowley shared a meal with Hong, U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan and others at a unity event outside Madison before embarking on a statewide tour. Evers, who is not seeking a third term as governor, had another commitment and did not attend.

Crowley became the first Black person to win a major party nomination for Wisconsin governor. Now he's vying to become the first Black governor of the state.

“This historic moment is not lost on me. But I'm not even thinking about that because we've still got work to do,” Crowley said. “The job is not done. The job is not finished. My job is not to become the first, and if I do become the first, my job is to make sure I'm not the last.”