Shifting list of GOP candidates sets battle lines for control of House

WASHINGTON — Long Island and other areas of New York State had been projected to be among the nation's pivotal battlegrounds for party control of the U.S. House heading into this fall’s midterm elections.

Instead, Republicans have struggled to recruit or keep top-tier candidates against incumbent Democrats in the Hudson Valley, central New York and this past week in Nassau County, where former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito decided not to run for his old seat.

"New York is less central to the battle for control of the House because the national environment for Democrats has improved," said Erin Covey, a nonpartisan handicapper with the Cook Political Report.

Independent analysts now identify Texas, North Carolina, Maine and Ohio — thanks in large part to redistricting — as better opportunities for Republicans to pick up seats and offset potential losses elsewhere.

Democratic-held New York seats, Covey said, have as a result become a lower priority for the national Republican Party, which she said also makes recruiting candidates harder.

Jay Jacobs, who is chairman of both the state and Nassau County Democratic committees, frames it another way: "The fact that Republicans had to dig down and choose a receiver of taxes — perhaps the least-popular elected position in creation — speaks for itself."

Jacobs was referring to Nassau GOP leaders’ sudden choice of relatively little-known Jeanine Driscoll, a Town of Hempstead tax official, to run for the House seat held by Democratic Rep, Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) after D’Esposito opted out.

Narrow margin

Nationwide, Democrats need a net pickup of just three districts in the 435-member chamber to wrest the majority from Republicans. That means Republicans need to defend the seats they have and counter any losses with gains elsewhere.

New York had been seen as a key focus of that aim.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), who is chairman and top strategist of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s campaign arm, assured Newsday on Wednesday that New York "remains a key to our success to holding the majority."

On D’Esposito, Hudson said, "I don’t really know what his decision-making was there, but that’s a seat we’re going to pick up — and we’ll have a strong candidate." He added, "there are a number of seats there that we've got a really good opportunity of winning."

Hudson pointed again to Gillen’s District 4 seat, and also the District 3 seat next door represented by Democrat Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove).

A third mention is NY-19, a district held by freshman Rep. Josh Riley that stretches from parts of the Hudson Valley west to Tompkins County and includes the cities of Binghamton and Ithaca.

As with President Donald Trump’s endorsement of former Assemb. Michael LiPetri in a bid for Suozzi’s seat, State Sen. Peter Oberacker has received the president’s endorsement to unseat Riley.

Another seat that in the past has been an important — and expensive — battleground is District 22, a Syracuse-area seat held by first-term Rep. John Mannion (D-Geddes). But in January, a state assemblyman seen as the top GOP candidate there suddenly suspended his campaign, instead choosing to run for the Assembly again.

A GOP candidate also dropped out earlier this month in the Hudson Valley-based District 18, represented by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, of Kingston, who is seeking a third term.

Top battleground 

But it’s not a Democratic seat that analysts and lawmakers alike see as the state’s main "toss-up" race at this point. That’s the lower Hudson Valley’s District 17 seat held by Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River).

Lawler says he’s not fretting that Democrats in New York and across the nation will be able to target more money and resources against him, if other New York races turn out less competitive than once expected.

"My race is going to be the most expensive in the country, anyway," Lawler told Newsday. "So, whether it’s $60 million or $70 million or $80 million, I’m not worried about it."

New York could still play a role in deciding if Republicans successfully defend their majority in the elections seven months from now. But what had been earlier speculation about New York being a pivotal key swing has toned down.

Donald G. Nieman, a history professor at Binghamton University, said of Hudson’s three named GOP targets, "I don't think any one of those three districts will come into play," including the two on Long Island.

He said immigration-enforcement outrage, an unpopular war's economic effects and Trump at times acting "like an unhinged king," have exasperated Republicans and turned this into a more difficult midterm year.

"D'Esposito made a smart decision," Nieman said. "The Republicans' problem is the political environment." 

Potential fights

Covey said Cook’s nonpartisan ratings of the New York races have Republican Lawler’s district as a toss-up. But she doesn't shut the door on some battles in Democratic districts.

She said the districts held by Democrats Riley, Suozzi and Gillen are all rated "lean Democrat" — Gillen’s was moved from the toss-up ranks. But she added that the "trimlines" are a bit better for Republicans with regard to the Suozzi and Gillen seats on Long Island — even if they both "are definitely favored to win at this point."

On paper, she said Suozzi’s seat "looks like the best pickup opportunity for the GOP," because Trump carried the district in 2024 and LiPetri has had more time to fundraise than Driscoll. But she said Suozzi is "a battle-tested incumbent."

Democrat Mannion in central New York should have no trouble holding a seat that 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won by 8 points, she said.

Long Island Republican Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), whose district is not seen as very competitive, candidly echoes Covey's assessment.

"Right now," he said, "I think the battlefield is Lawler, Suozzi and Gillen."