Democrats hope momentum from big election wins will carry over into 2026 midterm races

WASHINGTON — Democrats are showing fresh swagger after prominent and lesser-noted victories Tuesday in New York State and across the country, as their focus shifts rapidly to the 2026 fights for control of the U.S. House and Senate.

But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — also with an eye to next year — is aggressively downplaying with his lieutenants any evidence of broad pushback against President Donald Trump and Republicans or worry about a change in party control of the House.

Meanwhile, Trump — who would face stark new limitations if Democrats took control of even one of the chambers — is casting the results as more tied to passing voter unhappiness over Congress and the U.S. government shutdown.

The twin, double-digit Democratic gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia were expected, Johnson reiterated Thursday, saying, "You had blue states and blue cities that voted blue," in an off-year election. He did offer that a "big headline" is Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in New York City, but only to jab that, effectively, "a 34-year-old Marxist has become the leader of the Democratic Party."

But Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) and other Democrats underscored that Democratic wins Tuesday occurred across the country. Those Democratic victories went beyond just front-line races — but by candidates spanning the party’s ideological spectrum in state legislative, city council and other local races, and in votes on other state and local matters.

Those wins happened not just in New York City and New Jersey, but in politically red and purplish places like New York’s Hudson Valley and farther upstate, along with Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Florida, Kansas, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and areas of Virginia.

Jeffries is already predicting a flip of House control to Democrats in 2026, and he crowed on Wednesday, "Democrats have all the momentum in the world."

Uphill battle 

While the public partisan spin about the election’s meaning continues, party strategists and independent analysts are already assessing the next one. Most agree that Democrats who remain in the minority of both the House and Senate still face uphill battles to take House and Senate control.

But after Tuesday’s elections, those challenges seem less formidable, they say.

As of Thursday in the 435-seat House — not counting announced or not-yet-announced retirements or deaths that could alter numbers before the November 2026 election — Republicans’ slim control held at 219 seats to 213. There is another Democrat already elected, though not sworn or seated, which effectively leaves the GOP with just a 5-seat majority, with two vacant seats that had been split between the parties.

But this picture is getting further muddled by the impact of Trump convincing Texas to pass a congressional map tilting five more seats there toward Republicans — and other states looking to help the GOP gain more seats — while California voters on Tuesday responded by approving a measure that could lead to Democrats winning five more seats there.

"So, at this point, I think Republicans probably net 3-7 (more) seats through redistricting," Erin Covey, a House elections expert at the non-partisan handicapper The Cook Political Report said. But she added, "Republicans can’t draw themselves enough seats to protect themselves from a potential blue wave, even if the outstanding redistricting fights go their way."

"I think the fight for the majority would be highly competitive," Covey added. In 2022, she said, Republicans still flipped nine House seats even as the environment was less favorable than they had anticipated. And Democrats may only need to flip nine seats to take back the House next year, depending on what happens with redistricting.

LI races key

Central to this fight will be at least two House seats on Long Island that Covey and other handicappers predict will be competitive, with Democrats needing Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and Laura Gillen (R-Rockville Center) to hold on. Freshman Gillen is viewed by the Cook analysts and others as among the most endangered House Democrat.

A flip of Senate control from Republicans is seen as a tougher bridge for Democrats to cross, and the effort is being led by New York’s junior Democratic senator, Kirsten Gillibrand as chairman of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. There are currently 45 Democrats, 53 Republicans, and two Independents who caucus with Democrats in the Senate. 

Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs next year, 22 are held by Republicans. But about 17 of those are seen as solidly Republican, and a Georgia seat held now by a Democrat and a Michigan seat held by a retiring Democrat are seen as tossups. There are two GOP seats also seen as tossups.

Against this backdrop comes the discussions this week — and the search for data explaining Tuesday’s results and what they may foreshadow for 2026.

"We won all over the country," Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin told Newsday and other reporters during a call Wednesday. "Democrats are back," he said, adding, "We didn’t stumble into this, we worked for it."

Hints of unease

This voting did occur in an off-election year, as Johnson notes, and it also occurred during hardships and anger among some Americans over the continuing, record-long government shutdown.

But some exit polling released after the election suggests the results show some backlash — at least for now — to Trump’s policies and a view those are responsible for driving up costs, and concern also about spiking health care prices. And there is a receptiveness to Democratic focus on "affordability" as a general theme.

For instance, polling results publicly reported from Groundwork Action and Hart Research Associates showed affordability wasn’t just a top issue elevating Mamdani in New York City. The top two issues in Virginia, where former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger was elected governor, were the economy at 49% and health care at 21%.

Other exit polling by Hart showed that 45% of New Jersey voters — who elected Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill — said that Democrats’ position on health care during the government shutdown made them feel more favorable toward the Democratic Party, with 19% saying it made no difference and only 33% saying less favorable.

"There is no doubt that the momentum Democrats got out of the election results on Tuesday night can be sustained," said Brad Woodhouse, a veteran Democratic Party strategist and current president of the group, Protect Our Care, a progressive health care group.

He said Republicans have not come through with their promises in the last election to do something about prices and affordability — and instead, "slashed Medicaid and spiked health care premiums." He said, "Democrats are committed to affordability which is why they won in a landslide on Tuesday night."

But House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) echoes Johnson in arguing that New York City, New Jersey and others areas that do not traditionally swing back and forth elections do not represent a bellwether.

Steve Israel, the former Long Island congressman who chaired the House Democratic caucus’ campaign arm, said Thursday of the existing political climate, "What we are seeing is a pretty strong pushback to Donald Trump." If that is sustained, he said, "it will benefit Democrats in purple, competitive districts in next year’s midterms."

But Israel also cautions of the Democratic optimism spilling from Tuesday’s results, "You can never focus on the last election. You have to focus on the next."