Early poll shows strength for Gov. Kathy Hochul against potential challengers

Gov. Kathy Hochul continues to hold a huge lead over a variety of potential Republican challengers, including one from Long Island, according to a new poll by Siena College — which acknowledged the actual election is "many lifetimes away" in political terms.

The survey also looked at a handful of hot-button issues, finding New Yorkers support a bill that some call "medical aid in dying" and others call physician-assisted suicide by a 2-1 ratio.

Generally, the numbers among would-be political candidates didn’t change notably from one month ago.

Hochul, a Democrat from Buffalo, commands at least a 20-point lead over three Republicans who loom as possible candidates.

Hochul leads Rep. Michael Lawler (R-Pearl River), 44% to 24%, among those surveyed. She leads Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), 47-24. And the governor leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, 44-19.

"Recognizing that 16 months in politics is many lifetimes away, a first look at how New York voters feel about potential gubernatorial matchups shows that partisanship wins out," Siena pollster Don Levy said.

But he cautioned: "Hochul is not hitting the ‘magic’ 51% mark against any of these opponents," referring to an often key marker for incumbents.

In a potential matchup for the Democratic nomination, Hochul (49%) overwhelmingly leads Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (12%) and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), (10%).

For the GOP nomination, the early poll shows support for Stefanik (35%) running ahead of Lawler (18%) and Blakeman (7%).

On issues, Siena found New Yorkers:

• Favor "medical aid in dying," 54% to 28%, referring to a bill approved by the legislature to allow a terminally ill person with less than six months to live to obtain life-ending medication from a physician. Hochul will have to sign or veto the bill.
• Favor a prisons bill (76%-10%) to require comprehensive audio and video surveillance in common areas, following the beating death of an inmate.
• Favor (77-10) mandating state agencies disclose when using artificial intelligence systems.

Siena surveyed 800 voters from June 23-26; the poll has margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy