How Long Island and New York House races factor into national battle for control

WASHINGTON — Democrats’ hopes for a powerful check on President Donald Trump depends on the outcomes Tuesday of several dozen U.S. House battleground swing districts, including on Long Island, in the Hudson Valley and in northern New York.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says Americans won't be discouraged by "unreliable polls or by pundits" declaring the party opposing Trump is destined to win, and Republicans understand they must "defy history" and keep the House majority. Only twice since 1946 has the president's party managed a net gain of House seats during a midterm election.

Polls show the political environment is very much in the Democrats’ favor to flip the GOP’s House control. Whether that is borne out will begin to be known as some of the early results begin to roll in from states like Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and most of Texas, which close their polls before New York's do at 9 p.m.

But Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter, offered that, even then, "If Republicans are flipping either of two Long Island seats, that's a great early sign for them," referring to the two House districts represented by Democratic Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre).

"The reality: the Republicans need New York seats," said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran New York Democratic political consultant.

And that means not just flipping the Suozzi and Gillen seats, as well as keeping a hold on the two Long Island seats held by Republican Reps. Nick LaLota's (R-Amityville) and Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport). It also means holding on to a Lower Hudson Valley seat now held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), in one of the nation’s most-watched tossups. And it calls for keeping a seat now held by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), who is not seeking reelection, that represents the North Country and parts of the Adirondack Mountains and Mohawk Valley.

Democrats also hope there's a chance they can seize control of the Republican-held Senate.

Impacting Trump

At stake Tuesday is whether Trump and Republicans lose their unified control of the House and Senate for the president’s last two years in the White House. A Democratic-controlled House or Senate could block presidential spending and other initiatives, saddle the administration with investigations powered by committee subpoenas and, Trump has said, impeach him.

"The map is diverse and widespread," Rubashkin said of the consequential House race nationally.

He said the political momentum greatly favors Democrats. Much of that, he said, is owed to Trump’s unpopular policy decisions — the war with Iran, his imposition of tariffs on friendly countries, his immigration enforcement policies — as well as gas prices and the economy generally that saw his approval ratings fall to 30% in early October, according to polling from the Pew Research Center.

Time Magazine reported that the last time an American president’s approval rating was at a comparable low this close to the midterms was Harry Truman in 1946.

Overall, Democrats in the House need a net gain of just three seats to seize majority control of that 435-seat chamber. Roughly 85% of the races for the chamber’s seats are not seen as very competitive, owing to partisan redistricting and regional polarization.

As a result, both parties are fighting over every inch of turf in the other 60 or so contests, playing defense to keep seats they currently hold, going on offense to win the others.

Erin Covey, a House race analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said, "We are projecting Democrats pick up 12-25 seats in the House, giving them 227-240 seats."

Johnson, in TV interviews and other appearances over the past week, argued that polling showing large Democratic leads is unreliable and wrong, using "faulty analysis" and failing to capture conservative enthusiasm and intended voter turnout. In an op-ed piece in USAToday on Friday, he argued Republicans have delivered on their legislative and economic promises and warned against shifting course.

How New York comes into play

Though New York’s results won’t come in until after 9 p.m., that’s still early enough for the state's key results to potentially matter as a notable barometer of which party has the momentum.

The congressional battles in New York are also playing out against the backdrop of a governor's race pitting Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

Donald Nieman, a Binghamton University history and politics expert, said states like Virginia and Pennsylvania may not necessarily be predictive of what happens in New York, because House races are still influenced by local concerns and local candidates' perceived quality.

For instance, Nieman said, while affordability is an issue everywhere, "it could play differently in New York where a Republican gubernatorial candidate is hammering an incumbent Democratic governor as the source of the problem."

Other analysts, including Shawn Donahue, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo, said a lot of interest is focused on the two Long Island seats held by Democrats Suozzi, who is being challenged by Republican former Assemb. Mike LiPetri of Farmingdale, and Gillen, who is facing Republican Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll of Bellerose Village, as must-watch races.

What's made the Suozzi and Gillen races intriguing, he said, is that both districts are either entirely or largely located within Blakeman's home turf of Nassau County. The extent to which Blakeman’s name atop the ballot could draw Republicans to the polls and benefit LiPetri and Driscoll remains uncertain, he said.

The two other Long Island seats held by Republican Reps. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), who faces military pilot and volunteer firefighter Chris Gallant of Amity Harbor, and Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport), who faces former Suffolk County Executive Pat Halpin of Oak Beach, are viewed as less competitive. Nonpartisan raters including Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have them as solidly Republican contests.

Lawler’s race in the lower Hudson Valley against Democratic challenger Caitlin of New Castle is one of the most expensive and closely watched contests in the country — one of the only districts nationally held by a Republican that Democrat Kamala Harris carried in her 2024 presidential bid.

Farther upstate, the open-seat race to succeed Stefanik is a surprisingly close contest between Republican businessman Anthony Constantino and Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien; a Democratic victory there would be a clear GOP set-back.

Senate Races

Senate Republicans currently hold a majority with 53 of 100 seats. Democrats need to net pick up of four seats to gain a majority.

Jessica Taylor, the Senate-race editor at Cook Political Report, said the battle for control of that chamber is now seen as "a toss up," "but one in which Democrats have the momentum and are slightly favored."

Five Republican-held seats that are pivotal if Democrats hope to flip control: Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Texas and Iowa. Contests in Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Kansas, Mississippi and possibly South Carolina also could impact the outcome. If the deciding race comes down to Alaska, which party will control the Senate could be left uncalled for weeks.

If Democrats do take the Senate, Chuck Schumer could be elevated by colleagues to Senate majority leader. Combined with the potential for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to be elected speaker if Democrats take the House, the Brooklyn duo would represent a historically rare same-state pairing of a Senate majority leader and House speaker.