Republicans' shrinking House majority brings new possibility: a change in control without an election

WASHINGTON — This month's unexpected death of a Republican congressman and the hospitalization of another — along with Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation — have reinforced how fragile the GOP’s hold on the U.S. House remains.

A question begs: What if Republicans see their wispy 218-213 majority control of the chamber fall to a midterm numerical minority, through retirements, party switching or other reasons?

Would the speakership immediately flip from Republican Mike Johnson to New York Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, not to mention a changeover in party control over subpoena-wielding congressional committees?

Or might Johnson turn to his playbook from last year’s government shutdown and Jeffrey Epstein-records battles to invoke an immediate House recess to block a Democratic majority from undercutting the GOP agenda — and hitting President Donald Trump with investigations or even impeachment?

"It’s an interesting parlor game — but it might be a real game," Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former House Rules Committee chairman, concedes. "I suppose they (Democrats) call an election for speaker, and they win. I really don’t know."

The offices of Johnson (R-La.) and Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) did not respond to inquiries as to what would happen if the majority switched.

Such a midterm power-reversal scenario has never occurred in the House since the arrival of the modern two-party system, which dates from the late 1850s, except once, in 1931, when the shift was largely meaningless. Democrats had already won the election that year to change party control in the next Congress.

The chances of it happening this year run against that history and may be slight. Yet, there are reasons why some lawmakers and non-partisan congressional experts are not completely dismissing a flip.

Unpredictable events could line up to cause the GOP margin to ebb even further and shrink to minority status, but it could also grow, or the House majority could potentially swing back and forth.

"Fascinating scenario," said Donald Nieman, a history professor at Binghamton University. His prediction is that Johnson would quickly invoke his authority to recess the chamber to prevent any vote on a new speaker.

Narrow margin

The functional Republican voting advantage dropped to 217-213 with the death on Jan. 6 of California GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa, 65, after a medical emergency, combining with the resignation that same week of Trump-ally-turned-foe Greene and the hospitalization of Indiana Republican Rep. Jim Baird, 80, after a car accident.

For perspective, that represents one of the narrowest voting edges in House history by a majority party, said Drew DeSilver, a senior writer at the non-partisan Pew Research Center who has studied House political party divisions and margins. At one point this session, it had briefly been even narrower, 218-215. 
Baird’s eventual release from the hospital has brought the functional voting margin to 218-213. Even so, House Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in actually showing up to vote since on several largely non-controversial topics.

Of course, narrow party divides in the chamber have become the norm in recent years. But there are several other things in play in the next months.

There are now four vacant seats in the House, with LaMalfa’s death and Greene’s voluntary departure from Congress after her public clashes with Trump. The two other vacant seats were held by Democrats this session.

Special elections for new representatives to fill out the unexpired term in those vacant formerly Democratic seats in Texas and New Jersey are set for later this month and in April, and in March for Greene’s seat. One for LaMalfa’s seat could occur in May or a month later.

Democrats could come away with two of those three seats by the end of April, as the LaMalfa seat remains unfilled. That would bring at least a temporary net gain of one Democratic seat that would then shrink the GOP's majority margin to 219-215, with that one vacancy.

Seeking other office

Then comes a real wild card.

Nearly four dozen members from both parties have already announced they will not run for reelection to their current House seats — 25 Republicans and 22 Democrats. Among them are eight Democrats and 17 Republicans running for other public offices.

Along with missing votes, it’s anyone’s guess which members and from which party will end up simply quitting early, as post-congressional job offers begin to arrive, primary or other elections are won or for other reasons. There are typically a number of lawmakers who do that, as several already have this session.

Then there’s the possibilty of more deaths, with many older members from both parties and some who remain in Congress despite medical issues. Three members already had died this session before LaMalfa.

Cole, the Oklahoma Republican, said there's little his party can do to prevent heart attacks and car crashes to keep the majority. But he jokes that Johnson, a Southern Baptist, "is closer to God and might be able to pull it off."

Potential machinations

How this all ends up slicing the party seat configuration is unclear.

In the Senate, a 2001 switch by then Vermont Republican Jim Jeffords from Republican to independent — and his decision to caucus with Democrats — caused a monumental change in power in that chamber, including committee chairmanships.

But any potential handover of the House speaker’s gavel would not go smoothly, predict Congress members, staffers and outside non-partisan experts.

Toss in some potential mischief, some say, from governors in how quickly or slowly they fill any new House-seat vacancies that might swing the majority either way.

House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar of California suspects that Johnson would quickly call the House to recess — similar to what he did during last year’s government shutdown.

Norm Ornstein, former resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, similarly says his guess is "Johnson will immediately try to adjourn the House, keeping them out until the numbers change," possibly by winning vacant seats in special elections.

"Which could bring policy mayhem," Ornstein adds, if there are legislative issues that need to be addressed, such as a government funding deadline.

Some are less pessimistic. Josh Huder of Georgetown University's Government Affairs Institute says that if Democrats suddenly have more seats than Republicans, the rules clearly allow them to force the issue on a new speaker and majority by using several avenues to force a vote on the House floor.

Huder also offered that if the majority begins to seesaw, or is stuck in what is clearly a temporary majority soon to change again, the parties could craft a power-sharing agreement, which could split floor control between Republicans and Democrats, divide up committee leadership posts or any number of things.

"Though given party polarization and the complexities of such a plan, I don't see this as a very realistic option," Huder said, "even if it's theoretically possible."