Israel: Dems on track for 2012 election

WASHINGTON -- With the 2012 election just one year away, Rep. Steve Israel sought to put a positive spin Friday on the Democrats' uphill efforts to win back the House by reclaiming 25 seats from Republicans.

After being swept from the House majority by Republicans winning more than 60 additional seats last year, Israel, of Dix Hills, pointed to signs the Democrats' "Drive for 25" campaign is on track.

"We have gone from a gale-force wind against us to a sustained breeze at our backs," Israel, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said at a briefing.

Republicans scoffed at Israel's claims. And political analyst Stuart Rothenberg called Israel's assessment "optimistic."

Israel conceded Democrats must overcome the bleak economic picture and President Barack Obama's lagging polls. But he said that since Republicans control the House, they will face the wrath of voters, given Congress' low ratings.

"If I were the House Republicans, I would be more worried about the House Republicans' numbers than the president's numbers," he said.

Israel cited the committee's candidate recruitment, redistricting that didn't hurt Democrats, and what he said were GOP policies on Medicare, jobs and tax policies that drive independents and seniors to his party.

He said polls show voters favor Democrats over Republicans in generic House races. "The good news for us is that they've got 50, 60 incumbents they've got to protect," Israel said. "We estimate that we're going to have 12 to 15 front-liners that we've got to protect."

New York, which political handicappers project to have six to eight seats in play, will be a key state next year. The GOP again is targeting Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton) while Democrats are taking aim at all six freshman Republicans.

The New York picture will be unsettled until the state decides which two seats to eliminate to redraw district lines.

"With Obama's numbers and Democrats' big-government reckless-spending agenda, more and more people are turning to Republicans," said Tory Mazzola of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Rothenberg said it's Israel's job to be optimistic. "There is a good chance Democrats are going to gain seats," he said. "But 25 seats is really uphill."