LI House candidates are testing attack lines ahead of fall ad blitzes

WASHINGTON — Political advertising is about to hit a high gear ahead of the Nov. 3 elections, and there is little mystery about some of the issues and attack lines ahead in Long Island’s four congressional races.

Summer previews of this fall’s big spending on TV and other campaign ads already have been testing themes, so far mostly in less-costly digital streaming or social networks or other targeted channels.

“The battle lines are already drawn and the stakes are sky-high,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie. “So, voters can expect to be swamped with ads and social media.”

The political arms of congressional party leaders also are punching away with early commercials, with majority control of the U.S. House resting on a swing of as few as three of its 435 seats. So, too, are independent groups, including so-called super PACs.

AdImpact, a company that analyzes advertising data across all media channels, projects this midterm election to reach $11.6 billion in spending nationwide, which would be the most expensive election cycle ever. About half of that is expected to be spent in House and Senate races.

Here’s some of what to expect from the U.S. House seat races on Long Island:

District 3

Of the four races, a rematch from 2024 between Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and former GOP Assemb. Michael LiPetri, of Farmingdale — who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement — could shape up as the most expensive in terms of political ads. The district includes parts of Nassau, Suffolk and Queens counties.

Nonpartisan political handicappers say it is a “lean Democrat” race, but competitive.

A theme of LiPetri’s ads, he said in a statement, will be "telling the truth and providing voters with a clear contrast." That includes casting Suozzi as a career politician who over the years has supported raising taxes while he has grown wealthier in Congress. 

House Speaker Mike Johnson’s political lieutenants at the National Republican Congressional Committee have already been busy portraying Suozzi as part of the Democratic Party’s far left, despite his moderate record and long-term self-branding otherwise.

Fights over some ads already have occurred. Republicans have demanded that TV stations stop airing one ad from an outside, pro-Suozzi political group — the Effective Governing Coalition — that features a “Bob the baker” from Huntington praising Suozzi for fighting to expand the state and local tax deduction limit.

The complaint is that this is a misleading message, because Suozzi — like every House Democrat — did not vote for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act that extended the deduction and raised the limit.

The NRCC and other groups have been hit by an ethics complaint themselves, with anti-corruption advocacy group Defend the Vote seeking to prevent use of photos or videos of lawmakers on the House floor, including those of Suozzi appearing to doze off during Trump’s State of the Union speech this year.

Suozzi up to this point has stayed relatively quiet in attacking LiPetri. But supporters — including the House Democrats’ campaign arm — have provided plenty of hints of what’s ahead in their attacks.

Those will range from depicting LiPetri as someone whom 3rd District voters have already rejected once before, to his being a rubber stamp doing everything Trump tells him to do. Expect LiPetri to be tied to Trump's tariffs, war with Iran, cuts to health programs and other policies.

LiPetri is out early in purchasing and reserving time slots for TV ads, for instance on WCBS, according to contracts that can be viewed on the station’s website. That is something Suozzi’s campaign has not yet started to do.

District 4

The race pitting first-term Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) against Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll is also seen by nonpartisan handicappers as a potentially competitive, “lean Democrat” race.

Driscoll, like LiPetri, has Trump’s endorsement and the backing of the NRCC for a district that lies completely in Nassau County.

Gillen, like Suozzi, has become a perpetual target of Republican assertions she intentionally misleads voters. Much of that has focused on claims she’s been hypocritical in posing with a new fire truck in her district or holding big prop checks to take credit for federal funding, even though she did not actually vote for underlying bills containing that money.

Unmentioned in such attacks is that lawmakers in both parties often resort to such a practice if they are in the minority — touting items they fought to steer to their districts in a bill written by the majority, even if opposing most of the underlying measure that contained the items or money.

The NRCC has run ads also grouping Gillen — one of the three most centrist-voting House Democrats — with left-wing figures like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx, Queens) to say she is out of touch with her suburban district.

Gillen also is being hit for voting against the SALT deduction cap extension and increase — though she actually tried to amend Trump’s bill so that it would fully eliminate any deduction cap.

There’s already been ad controversy over mailers the state Democratic Party has dropped on behalf of Gillen claiming Driscoll backed a “massive” $42 million tax hike in the Town of Hempstead. Driscoll, who depicts herself as a fighter for lower taxes, and her backers say that’s not true.

Districts 1 and 2

Nonpartisan political analysts, like the Cook Political Report, see these two races as less competitive, at least for now, and “solidly” in the hands of the Republican incumbents, Reps. Nick LaLota, of Amityville, and Andrew Garbarino, of Bayport.

For now, LaLota rarely mentions Chris Gallant, of Amity Harbor, his Democratic opponent in the Suffolk race. A new TV ad that LaLota will be launching in the coming days focuses on his own record in fighting for tax relief, such as the SALT cap extension and increase.

Gallant's team notes he has been building an aggressive digital strategy, earning more than 1.5 million views across Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and X.

A Gallant spokesperson said themes of LaLota’s record include backing legislation that has stripped 63,000 Long Islanders of some health care, rubber-stamping tariffs that have made life more expensive and sending billions of dollars overseas to support another forever war in Iran.

Garbarino, chair of the Committee on Homeland Security, has not yet launched any ads in his race against former Democratic Suffolk County Executive Patrick Halpin.

But Garbarino says his eventual ads will show "clear differences between my opponent's record and my record — and voters will see that contrast clearly." His campaign says specific topics will include his work on such areas as SALT tax relief and health care for 9/11 first responders and survivors.

Halpin says his media strategy will include a focus on his willingness to meet with constituents directly, and that Garbarino is a rubber stamp for Trump’s "Make America Great Again" agenda and “a ghost who’s never in the district."

“Things will probably reach a crescendo about two weeks out from Election Day," says Jacob Neiheisel, an expert on political communication and campaigns at the University at Buffalo.

"No doubt voters will be more than turned off to it all by Election Day," Miringoff says.