Long Island districts could be key to which party controls U.S. House

WASHINGTON — With the past week’s congressional primaries determining the foes for Long Island’s two Republican and two Democratic U.S. House members in this fall’s elections, their races are on and opening salvos are flying.

A net gain of just three or four seats by Democrats nationally could flip the current narrow GOP majority. And at least two of the Island’s congressional districts, and potentially a third, are viewed by independent forecasters as among key battlegrounds.

"Because of its size and the number of competitive seats — maybe as many as four or even five — New York will be absolutely critical to the battle for the House," said Donald Nieman, a history professor and provost emeritus at Binghamton University, who counts the Long Island districts among those.

Erin Covey, a House elections expert with The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan handicapper, agreed that Long Island could be a key battleground.

Covey rates the districts held by Democrats Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) as competitive, though both incumbents are still favored, and the district held by Republican Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) as "potentially competitive." The Island’s fourth district, represented by Republican Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport), is not on many lists as being competitive, though that could change in a Democratic wave.

Here are the Long Island congressional matchups, and some of the opening shots being fired by the candidates:

District 1

This race for the seat now held by LaLota, 48, remains in the "solid Republican" category by the Cook Report. Still, some analysts don’t rule out that it could shift, especially in a political environment where Trump’s ratings continue to dive.

As LaLota seeks a third term, his Democratic challenger is Christopher Gallant, 37, of Amity Harbor. He is an Army National Guard Blackhawk pilot, former FAA air traffic controller and Suffolk County volunteer firefighter. Neither candidate actually lives in the district, which is not a requirement under the U.S. Constitution.

Gallant is hitting LaLota for voting for Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill — despite, he says, publicly promising to oppose deeper Medicaid cuts that the legislation carried. He also notes that LaLota recently threatened — in a letter Newsday has reported on — to withhold federal Community Project Funding from East End municipalities that declined to expand Immigration and Customs Enforcement cooperation in their communities.

"Nick LaLota promised to protect your healthcare and broke that promise. He took credit for delivering federal dollars to our towns, then threatened to take that money away," Gallant said.

LaLota is a U.S. Naval Academy graduate who served for 11 years, including his time at the academy. He is hitting back, including trying to tie Gallant to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and "the socialist wing" of "far-left candidates."

"My weak and woke opponent is embracing many of the same ideas," LaLota posted on X. His campaign also said in a statement that Gallant has has publicly supported positions aligned with defunding ICE and expanding sanctuary city policies.

Meanwhile, LaLota said he led efforts in Congress to "quadruple" the state and local tax deduction cap, or SALT, reduce other taxes "and secure federal funding for Long Island priorities, including clean water, infrastructure and public safety.

District 2

This race for the seat held by Garbarino, 41, comes as the second congressional district is also viewed by the Cook Report as "solidly Republican," despite an edge in active voters enrolled as Democrats, and with a significant chunk of independents.

But Garbarino’s challenger, former Suffolk County Executive Patrick Halpin, 73, of Oak Beach, says the political analysts are falling behind what is happening on the ground. As Trump’s approval numbers are falling into the low 30s within the district, he says, the tide is turning on the South Shore.

"Long Islanders want their elected leaders to lower costs, fix Social Security, provide affordable healthcare, ensure their safety, and deliver clean air and safe drinking water," Halpin says.

Garbarino, chair of the House Committee on Homeland Security, said he has "concern" over the direction of the Democratic Party, because of wins by democratic socialists in three New York City congressional primary races this past week.

"I’m focused on delivering results, whether it’s increasing the SALT deduction, keeping our country safe, or supporting law enforcement," he said.

District 3

This race for the seat held by Suozzi, 63, is seen as competitive, though rated a "lean Democrat" contest as of this week by the Cook Report. It features a rematch with former GOP Assemb. Michael LiPetri, 35, of Farmingdale, whom Suozzi defeated two years ago by less than 4 percentage points.

Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s spot atop the November ballot — as the GOP nominee for governor — could be an added draw for Republican voters. Still, LiPetri lost two years ago with Trump atop the ballot.

"What we’re seeing is classic Tom Suozzi — someone who has always campaigned as a moderate, then caves to the far-left once he’s in office," said LiPetri, who has also drawn attention to Suozzi's stock market activity while serving in Congress.

LiPetri also points to instances such as Suozzi’s flip-flop earlier this year in initially crossing party lines to support a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security that included funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, only to reverse himself after an ICE agent shot and killed a woman in Minneapolis.

LiPetri seeks to tie Suozzi to the ascendance of socialist democrat politicians in New York City. Suozzi in recent weeks has held news conferences to underscore that he has signed a pledge to be "mainstream, not extreme," and "capitalist, not socialist."

Kim Devlin, a Suozzi spokesman, said, "Voters have a clear choice between Tom Suozzi — an independent fighter who works across party lines to lower costs and get things done — and Mike LiPetri, a MAGA extremist who supports inflation-driving tariffs, costly wars, cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, and who may or may not live in the district."

District 4

This race for the seat held by freshman Rep. Gillen, 56, is also seen as "lean Democrat" but competitive by the Cook Political Report. Gillen is challenged by Jeanine Driscoll, 59, of the Village of Bellerose, the twice-elected sitting Hempstead receiver of taxes.

Driscoll on Tuesday night grabbed more than 90% of the support in her GOP primary race — the highest percentage of any of the Long Island congressional candidates for Congress of either party.

"This campaign will provide voters with a real choice between Laura Gillen’s record of raising taxes and my work to provide relief to Nassau homeowners," Driscoll said after her primary victory.

Gillen's campaign said she is focused on lowering costs, protecting taxpayers and delivering results for working families. It also took a swipe at Driscoll for being a "tax-hiking insider" and the Nassau GOP establishment’s "backup candidate." That is a reference to former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, who lost to Gillen in 2024, and decided not to seek a rematch.

Gillen has also signed the pledge to be "mainstream, not extreme," and "capitalist, not socialist."

"Long Islanders know Laura Gillen is on their side," Gillen’s campaign said.