Key races in the 2019 midterm elections

Some local political experts predict that this off-year election might be like none other, given the flood of presidential tweets, the battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, an expected heavy women’s vote and media disclosures that never seem to end.

But they are just not sure how it’s going to turn out.

“I’ve never seen anything quite like this,” said Jon Schneider, veteran Democratic political operative and former Suffolk deputy county executive. “I’ve never seen this level of interest in a midterm election. People are engaged in ways that are unprecedented, there is a tremendous amount of passion on both sides, and people voting who don’t normally vote. It’s a recipe for unexpected results.”

Michael Dawidziak, a consultant who works mainly for Republicans, said in most years, turnout is usually “easily predictable,” but not this cycle. “We’re in a very volatile situation, and the No. 1 reason is the president,” he said, “Everything he says from the [Central America] caravans to Saudi Arabia [crown] prince, could affect turnout, and it will play out daily until Election Day.”

Local voters can choose from among 162 candidates running for 71 elected positions, from United States senator and New York governor, attorney general and comptroller, to five local congressional seats, all nine local State Senate seats, 22 Assembly seats. There are 29 judgeships including the patronage-rich post of Suffolk Surrogate judge as well as contests for county comptroller and county clerk, town board seats in East Hampton, Babylon, Smithtown, and Huntington, and an assessor post on Shelter Island.

After decades of GOP domination, Democrats in Nassau and Suffolk now have an edge of 67,380 in voter enrollment over Republicans — 691,357 to 623,971, according to the New York State Board of Elections. However, experts also say that Republicans, often older and more affluent — tend to show up more reliably in off-year contests. Those not aligned to any party total 479,956, state board officials said.

There are 1,015,575 voters in Nassau and Suffolk. While turnout in a gubernatorial year normally ranges from 38 to 42 percent, some experts are saying turnout could spike to almost 50 percent this year — still below the 60 percent plus of a presidential year.

Long Island voters may play a key pivotal role in the battle for control of the State Senate, where Republicans now have a 32-31 edge, but only because Brooklyn Democrat Sen. Simcha Felder sits with their caucus.

The closest contest appears to be in Suffolk’s 3rd Senate District, where Assemb. Dean Murray (R-East Patchogue) is up against Suffolk Legis. Monica R. Martinez (D-Brentwood) for the open seat that GOP State Sen. Tom Croci, of Sayville, is giving up to return to the Navy. Democrats attack Murray for his ties to the tea party, when first elected. The GOP ties Martinez to county budget woes and unpopular red light cameras, mortgage and alarm fees.

In Nassau, veteran State Sen. Carl L. Marcellino (R-Syosset) chair of the Education Committee, is facing a stiff challenge for his 5th District seat from Suffolk Water Authority Chairman Jim F. Gaughran, who has picked up increased support from unions and construction groups. Meanwhile, freshman Sen. John E. Brooks (D-Seaford) is looking to fend off Republican Jeff P. Pravato, mayor of Massapequa Park, in the 8th District.

Other competitive Senate races include Democrat North Hempstead Town Board member Anna M. Kaplan’s challenge of Sen. Elaine R. Phillips (R-Flower Hill) in the 7th District; and in the 4th District, former Suffolk Legis. Louis D’Amaro’s race against GOP State Sen. Philip M. Boyle, who last year lost a GOP primary for sheriff; and in the 6th District, Democrat Kevin M. Thompson’s challenge to longtime GOP State Sen. Kemp Hannon (R-Garden City).

The top local races for Congress include the multimillion-dollar battle in the1st District, where GOP Rep. Lee M. Zeldin, a strong Trump backer, is facing businessman Democrat Perry Gershon. Gershon is touting a progressive agenda, but Zeldin’s campaign has labeled him “Park Avenue Perry” because Gershon moved his voting address to East Hampton from New York City.

In the 2nd District, progressive Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley is taking on veteran GOP Rep. Peter King, after winning a Democratic primary in a grassroots campaign that has raised an impressive $1.3 million. But she had $273,000 against King’s $2.8 million entering the campaign’s final month, according to the Federal Election Commission.

In the Assembly, the key contest pits Democrat Assemb. Christine Pellegrino against Republican Mike LiPetri, an attorney from Farmingdale. Pellegrino is seeking her first full term after an upset special-election win last year in the 9th District, where the GOP has 12,000 more voters.

Other key countywide races in Suffolk include the comptroller race pitting Republican incumbent John M. Kennedy against former county lawmaker, Democrat Jay Schneiderman, who is now Southampton Town supervisor.

Suffolk voters will also choose a new surrogate judge for the first time in 18 years in a race between Democrat Theresa Whelan, supervising judge of the family court, against Republican Tara A. Scully, a former president of the Suffolk County Women’s Bar Association. Whelan also has the backing of the Conservative and Independence parties. Scully, who lost a Democratic primary, has criticized cross-endorsement deals.

Brookhaven voters, meanwhile, will also vote on Election Day whether to increase the term for the town supervisor and town board members from two to four years, while limiting officeholders to three four-year terms, or a total of 12 years in office.