Once slated for retirement, fossil fuel power plants may be around for years to come

Even as a big new wave of offshore wind energy is set to make its way to Long Island next month, the future of the fossil fuel plants that comprise the bulk of the region’s energy infrastructure is coming into clearer view as their owners propose upgrades that could power the region for decades amid looser federal emission standards.

Sunrise Wind developer Orsted of Denmark recently reaffirmed to investors that the 924-megawatt offshore wind project is expected to begin sending the first of its energy to the Long Island grid by year's end, with full power expected by the first half of 2027. Sunrise has said the array can produce enough energy to power 600,000 homes, or half of LIPA’s 1.2 million customers.

At the same time, National Grid Ventures, which owns most of the fossil fuel fleet originally developed by the Long Island Lighting Co., recently filed paperwork in the first steps toward drastically overhauling two of its biggest stations, in Northport and Island Park.

The largest upgrade is envisioned for the E.F. Barrett Power Station in Island Park, where National Grid proposes to replace two old steam generators rated at a combined 390 megawatts with two considerably more efficient plants rated at 1,128.2 megawatts, according to filings with the state grid manager.

At Northport, where National Grid operates four LILCO-era steam generators, National Grid has proposed replacing at least one with a new 456.2 megawatt combined-cycle plant, according to the files. National Grid Ventures has been openly discussing the plan for months, Newsday has reported, but the filings indicate an important next step in moving ahead. Combined-cycle plants use both gas and steam turbines.

If all goes as planned, the plants could be in service by 2035. The company cautioned in a statement that the applications are "part of our exploration of repowering options, but does not guarantee we will repower any or all units."

The final decision ultimately rests with Long Island Power Authority, the electric grid owner, which is undertaking a yearlong study of all power options. LIPA’s $4.8 billion contract with the National Grid plants, including dozens of smaller plants, expires in April 2028.

Other expiring contracts

It’s not just the National Grid plants that could see changes to their future use and costs, as contracts for plants expire in the next two years.

Lotus Infrastructure Partners, the new owners of the Caithness Long Island Energy Center in Yaphank (recently renamed the Brookhaven Energy Center), appears to have wider plans for the 80-acre site, which has also been proposed as the home for two battery storage plants.

Last year, a project called Caithness II, which proposed 750 megawatts of combined-cycle power, was reported to be a candidate to supply power to a data center proposed for Brookhaven National Laboratory. The BNL contract wasn’t awarded, but Lotus in a statement said it and its affiliates "continue to explore opportunities at the site to supply additional capacity and energy to Long Island." Caithness’ contract with LIPA for the existing 310-megawatt plant expire in July 2027.

Reworld, whose contracts for four formerly Covanta-branded waste-to-energy plants with LIPA expire next year, said in a statement it was "working collaboratively on solutions that support Long Island's long-term energy and sustainability needs." The plants use natural gas. 

The likelihood that the fossil fuel plants will continue operating for potentially decades to come marks a stark contrast from just three years ago, when the state was well into a plan that mandated retirement of the carbon-emitting generators by the middle of the century. The climate law that requires retirement remains in place, but the state’s all-of-the-above strategy of nuclear, renewables and potentially rebuilt power plants has put climate law mandates on ice.

Asked on Thursday if the midterm election results that turned power over to Democrats in Congress could change the state’s strategy to lean more toward renewables, Ken Lovett, a spokesperson for Gov. Kathy Hochul, noted, "We still have a President who opposes offshore wind and solar along with predictions by the state's gird operator of severe energy shortages in coming years." He said Hochul "remains firmly committed to keeping New York's status as a clean energy and climate leader while also open to projects that can enhance our grid capacity as long as they meet all required state laws and regulations."

LIPA didn't respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has indicated no let up on its opposition to wind, solar and other renewables. The federal Environmental Protection Agency, led by Long Islander Lee Zeldin, this summer repealed Biden-era restrictions on power plant emissions and more recently proposed removing all greenhouse gas emission standards for plants.

A question of cost

One big question mark for all the fossil fuel power plants is cost.

National Grid Ventures said while "specific project details remain under evaluation, project costs and the impact on customer rates will depend on the ultimate scope, configuration and commercial structure. None of these have yet been determined."

The company's internal analysis, however, indicates that repowering "can lower costs for New York customers and significantly reduce emissions."

When LIPA first proposed repowering the E.F. Barrett plant in 2017, the cost was $1.3 billion, with the total bill impact to ratepayers estimated at $514 over 10 years. Repowering Northport would have cost upward of $2.1 billion. 

Energy expert Paul DeCotis, a former energy planner for LIPA who oversaw the repowering studies at the time, said while costs have increased, there are still compelling reasons to repower. 

"The economics have changed dramatically from 10 years ago," said DeCotis, senior partner at West Monroe, a consulting firm. But repowering plants at existing sites provides LIPA with a clear advantage compared with starting from scratch elsewhere. "You have these plants already in place, there are gas lines there, transmission lines." 

Neal Lewis, executive director of the Sustainability Institute at Molloy University and a proponent of the original Caithness plant, expressed reservations about committing to gas plants as the first big wave of wind power prepares to come ashore.

"Talking about combined-cycle plants does feel like going backward a little bit in an age of clean power," he said. "Twelve years ago it was a different argument to be made. Each of these decisions feels a little bit abrupt."

That could lead LIPA to consider interim options that help shave peak power demands, which are the primary drivers for energy planners. Robert Curry, a former public service commissioner, said that could lead LIPA to give greater consideration to previously articulated plans to upgrade or replace the fleet of aging small generators.

"From a conceptual standpoint, that’s the best Band-Aid for this point in time," he said. One big factor could be whether the plants have enough natural gas to supply them, even though they are more efficient. "How can they repower without a dramatic increase in gas supply?"

National Grid has been backing a plan by Williams Cos. to build the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, which proposes to increase natural gas supply into the region starting late next year. The project, opposed by environmental groups, was dealt a setback this fall when New Jersey vacated a prior water quality permit, telling Williams to reapply.

Michael Kaufman, vice chairman of the Suffolk County Planning Commission, who closely follows energy trends, said the Island, like many regional grids, is "betwixt and between" in energy supply, given mixed signals from markets and governments.

"I think we’re kind of stuck, basically," he said. "We cannot import enough power from other sources. Solar and wind are not capable of filling the void. So what do you do? It’s probably time to bite the bullet on repowering," he concluded. "Our power demands are climbing, and if data centers get built we’ll have an exponential increase in demand. Repowering is not a bad idea if we don’t have a lot of other choices."

While the new plants will be more efficient, they also will likely be used more given those efficiencies, noted John Howard, a former PSC chairman. "These new machines will make a lot more electricity," he said. "CO2 will go up," even as other emissions will decline, he said.

The real question, he said, amid reports of a state natural gas "renaissance," is if the state will approve air quality permits for the new plants under current climate law restraints on fossil fuel generators.

"The law says we’re not going to have any combustion," he said. "These plants will last a very long time."