New York GOP primary takes on new significance

WASHINGTON -- For the first time in nearly four decades, this year's New York Republican presidential primary will actually matter, party officials and analysts say.

No candidate will be able to amass enough delegates to clinch the nomination before New York's April 24 primary -- and that makes its 95 GOP delegates a prime prize.

"This is going to be our New Hampshire moment," said New York GOP chairman Ed Cox, citing the significance of that state's primary, the first one in each presidential race. "We expect a great turnout. I think the excitement of it will draw a lot of voters."

"It puts New York center stage, with the fact there are so many delegates," said Rep. Pete King (R-Seaford).

"New York will definitely matter," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

For state Republicans, the attention is a novelty. King said he could not remember when New York mattered so much.

Democrats have won New York in seven of the past 10 presidential elections. Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide was the last New York Republican win.

The GOP nomination has usually been decided by the time New Yorkers vote.

The last time New York made a big difference in the delegate count was in 1976, when President Gerald Ford staved off a challenge by Reagan, Sabato said.

Analyst Rhodes Cook, of the Center for Politics, said Ford won 133 delegates to Reagan's 20 in New York, giving him nearly all of his 117-delegate victory margin.

This year, it takes 1,144 delegates to win the GOP nomination. Romney leads with 454. Rick Santorum has 217, Newt Gingrich 107 and Ron Paul 47, The Associated Press said.

About 400 delegates are available in the 14 contests between now and New York's primary.

"I know of no one who thinks this will be over by April 24," Sabato said.

On that day, about 231 delegates will be up for grabs as New York joins Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware in what Sabato called the "Northeast Primary."

New York offers Romney his biggest trove of delegates: He has backing from Wall Street and key GOP county chairmen, including Nassau County's Joe Mondello and Suffolk's John Jay LaValle.

Romney led his rivals by 15 points among New York Republican voters, according to the latest Siena Poll.

"Once Santorum comes in and gets his message across, the base of the party could get very excited by him, and it could get to be a lot closer race," Cox said.

All the candidates have a chance to pick up delegates in New York, but they'll have to campaign across the state to win them, Cox said.

Unlike the last election, New York will not award all of its delegates to the primary winner, he said. Instead, it will divvy up its 95 delegates among the 29 congressional districts proportionally based on the statewide vote.

Each congressional district will have two delegates. The candidate who wins the most votes in a district will get both. That accounts for 58 delegates.

Another 34 at-large delegates will go to the candidate who wins more than 50 percent of the statewide vote. But if no one wins a majority, the delegates will be divided proportionally among the candidates getting at least 20 percent of the statewide vote.

Finally, three delegates will be the state's GOP chairman, Cox, and its national committeeman and committeewoman.

But political analyst Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Report, which handicaps federal races, warned, "New York might get overshadowed by Pennsylvania because of Santorum's presence in the race."

Romney is expected to take the battle to Santorum's home state, which Santorum represented in the Senate until 2006 -- a showdown that will be closely watched.