Politics newsletter: Blakeman vs. Hochul: How Trump, Mamdani may impact race

Ever get the impression that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul is running against President Donald Trump? Or caught yourself thinking Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is running against New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

No one would blame you.

But there are emerging signs that could change as we hit the final 40 days of campaigning.

For months, Hochul and Blakeman have leaned on the old, campaign-by-proxy approach.

Hochul attacks Blakeman for his close ties to Trump, knowing that polls show the President is very unpopular in New York State. Blakeman ads have sought to tie Hochul to Mamdani, asserting they are arm-in-arm, tax-hiking socialists, because polls show that makes some suburban swing voters uncomfortable.

Then on Monday, Trump visited Mamdani at Gracie Mansion, the mayor’s home. Trump smiled and patted the mayor’s shoulder, said he was off to a start at being a great mayor.

Blakeman downplayed it Tuesday, telling reporters he had no issue with elected officials talking to one another.

Here’s the second wrinkle. A new Newsday/Siena University poll is finding more New Yorkers than not think Mamdani’s endorsement will be beneficial to Hochul.

Statewide, 50% said it would be positive for the governor, 30% negative. Even on Long Island – where Trump and Blakeman enjoy some of their strongest support – 45% said Mamdani’s endorsement would be positive, 37% negative.

In contrast, Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman is being seen as not helpful: 51% statewide say it will have a negative effect on the Republican’s campaign; just 30% say positive. Also, Blakeman supports Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, who aren’t popular overall in New York.

Don Levy, Siena’s polling director, tells me it’s clear Blakeman’s ad strategy is changing.

Early on, “Blakeman’s statewide reputation was forged far more by his stance on crime, his stance on immigrants, his support for ICE,” Levy said. “Now, from what I can see sitting here in Albany, he’s running on affordability. Pure and simple.”

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy