Expiring Obamacare tax breaks remain deal breaker to end government shutdown

Another critical juncture in the U.S. government shutdown arrives by week’s end, although it’s hard to tell from some of the key players. The GOP-led House is set to spend its fifth consecutive week away from Washington, and President Donald Trump is not expected to return from an Asia tour until Thursday.

With the nation’s second-longest federal shutdown set to enter its 27th day on Monday, there remains no sign of resolution to the central issue dividing Democrats and Republicans in reopening the federal government — whether to renew expiring COVID-era health insurance tax breaks.

Even so, open enrollment officially begins Saturday for Affordable Care Act marketplace health insurance plans, or Obamacare. That means nearly 100,000 Long Islanders and millions of other Americans will be able to explore online, at Healthcare.gov, how much higher their already increasing premium costs will spike, if the federal tax credits expire at the end of the year, as scheduled.

Both sides have pointed to various pressure points they believe should have, or will, bring an end to the closure. Those have included missed federal workers’ pay, and beginning Saturday, the suspension of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, or food stamps.

But the start of Saturday’s ACA open enrollment for 2026 — when millions of Americans can get a look at the costs of their 2026 premiums, co-pays and deductibles — is the date when both sides have confidently predicted one or the other will shift strategy.

In this stalemate, Democrats are demanding those health subsidies be renewed — to keep these costs from ballooning — as a condition to lending extra Senate votes needed to advance a House-GOP-passed bill to reopen the government. They keep asking to meet with Trump. Republicans say they are willing to discuss such health care issues, but only after government is reopened.

On Long Island, the average increase for about 28,000 people with subsidized ACA plans would be 32%, according to data from the state Department of Health. Another 70,000, who now pay no premiums, will have to pay something regardless — but even more without a subsidy extension.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn), who’s argued the added costs will bring more pressure on Republicans, said Sunday Democrats aren’t backing down. Jeffries said that, even when pressed on CBS’ "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Sunday about whether the fight will be essentially over, once the insurance rates are locked-in with the start of open enrollment.

"The premiums are not locked in terms of the reality that if we can act legislatively and act now," Jeffries said. "We can extend the open enrollment period. We can push it back. And we can intervene as a Congress in order to actually protect the affordability of health care for tens of millions of people."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned in his own "Face the Nation" appearance Sunday, that "it’s a global embarrassment what these Democratic senators are doing ... keeping the government shut down."

Bessent urged Senate moderates to break with their party to vote in favor of the House-passed measure to reopen the government. He added of the shutdown: "Now what it does affect — it's starting to affect the economy. It's starting to slow down air traffic."

As for a meeting Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have been seeking with Trump, Bessent questioned what good would come from it.

Bessent added that this is "a Democratic-led boycott."

In fact, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has kept the House from voting since Sept. 19, saying the House has no reason to meet until Senate Democrats help reopen government. The Senate is in session on Monday. House Republicans and Democrats have scheduled private caucus meetings this week with their members — remotely.