Long Island races among NYS battlegrounds for control of House

WASHINGTON — Long Island and other parts of New York State are among the critical battlegrounds this fall for party control of the U.S. House.

Four of New York’s congressional districts — and a potential fifth depending on a final court ruling on its boundaries — are viewed by independent forecasters as key swing districts in the midterm elections.

They are all part of a chesslike mix of either offensive or defensive pursuits nationally by both Republicans and Democrats. And other New York areas also could emerge as consequential.

"Given that the political party that gains control of the House likely will do so by only a couple of seats, that makes New York’s races pivotal," said Donald Nieman, a history professor and provost emeritus at Binghamton University.

A Democratic takeover of the House would carry enormous consequences for President Donald Trump and his final two years in the White House, political analysts and even Trump say. Democrats could impede his agenda, pursue investigations and even, Trump has said, impeach him.

Nationwide, Democrats need a net pickup of just three districts in the 435-member chamber to flip the House majority that Republicans hold now with a 220-215 seat edge — crediting three seats now vacant from death or retirement to the party that previously held them.

Here, listed with their current ratings by non-partisan Cook Political Report, are the races in New York State that analysts say are in play and could have a big hand in deciding party control of the House:

District 4 (Democratic held, leans Democratic)

The 2026 race for this Democratic-held Long Island seat had been widely seen as a toss-up and one of the nation’s top competitive contests. The district lies entirely within Nassau County.

Republican former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito has been anticipated to take on Democratic freshman Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre). But as of this week D'Esposito still had not said whether he’s actually running. Gillen unseated D’Esposito in 2024 by 2.3 percentage points.

Predictions of a competitive rematch predated the GOP gubernatorial candidacy of Nassau County Republican Executive Bruce Blakeman. That development has the potential to draw more Nassau Republican voters to the polls in November, even if Blakeman stumbles statewide.

However, D’Esposito would need to leave a brand new job in the Trump Administration as the Department of Labor’s Inspector General to run. 

It is not clear which other Republicans could emerge as the party choice. The Cook Political Report last month downgraded the race from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic."

District 3 (Democratic held, leans Democratic)

The gloves are already off in this Long Island district, which includes parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties, and a section of Queens.

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) is facing a potential race this fall against the same Republican he defeated in 2024, former state Assemblyman Michael LiPetri Jr., who could face a GOP primary first.

LiPetri, of Farmingdale, came closer than expected in 2024, losing to Suozzi 51.7% to 48.1%. That was in part because Trump carried the district. This time around, it will be Blakeman on the ballot at the top of the GOP ticket.

Suozzi, who has long sought to be seen as one of Congress’ most prominent centrists, has in recent week found himself apologizing to Democratic constituents for having "failed" by voting in favor of a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

For his part, Trump has already injected himself in this race, putting out a statement solidly backing LiPetri and directly attacking Suozzi. The Cook Political Report has this race as "leaning" Suozzi’s way.

District 17 (Republican held, toss-up)

This race in the northern suburbs of New York City straddling the lower Hudson River Valley was shifted recently by Cook from "lean Republican" to a "toss-up" contest.

That outlook came even before it’s been decided which of several Republican candidates who want to faceoff with Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the general election will emerge as the party pick.

Lawler is seeking a third term, after he considered a bid for governor last year. State GOP Chairman Edward Cox said in an interview that Lawler decided not to run for governor, in part, because the party needs to protect its hold in this tough district, where Democrats hold a voter advantage, and he’s shown he can do that.

The district includes Rockland, Putnam and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties. The district backed Democrats Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris in the last two presidential election years.

District 19 (Democratic held, leans Democratic)

This geographically sprawling Democratic-held upstate district includes parts of the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and the Catskills. 

Freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca) flipped the seat in 2024 by defeating incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro, with 51.1% of the vote in a rematch of a race he lost two years earlier.

As with Trump’s endorsement of LiPetri on Long Island, state Senator Peter Oberacker also has received the president’s endorsement. In doing so, Trump attacked Riley as "a true Radical Left Extremist who does not represent the Values of Central New York."

District 11 (Republican held, may be redrawn)

This district, which covers Staten Island and parts of South Brooklyn, is home to New York City’s only Republican in Congress, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis.

But the district awaits a finalized court ruling on the redrawing of its boundaries stemming from claims the current lines dilute the power of Black and Latino residents, in violation of the state Constitution.

Malliotakis asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday to block a Manhattan judge’s order to redraw her congressional district lines. If the redraw proceeds, however, the district could be a potential pickup seat for Democrats.

Other districts that previously were rated as potentially competitive have shifted to being "safe Democratic."

Those include the Hudson Valley-based District 18, represented by Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner) and the Central New York-based CD-22 held by freshman Rep. John Mannion (D-Geddes.) Still, those races will be closely watched.

National picture

Republicans initially appeared to be gaining an advantage through redistricting battles launched in states like Texas. But Democrats appear to have mostly countered in other states.

What is more clear, Binghamton University’s Nieman says, is that California, Pennsylvania, and even bright red Iowa, are among states with enough projected competitive House races this fall to carry big impacts. Deep blue New York State — which has never shown much polling approval for its native Queens-born Trump — is squarely also in that mix.

Jay Jacobs, the New York State Democratic Party chairman who also chairs Nassau County’s Democratic committee, said he's excited about the prospects for New York State to be key in Democrats taking the House, adding also it's "a better political climate for Democrats at this point in the election cycle."

The GOP hold on the House could be significantly weakened if Democrats can keep seats such as Suozzi’s and Gillen’s and win even one or two of the others, he said,

But Cox, the state GOP chairman, says his party has a strong chance to pick up those two seats and that Blakeman’s Republican gubernatorial bid will draw more GOP voters to the polls in those areas. "We’re winning those two seats," Cox declared.

Jacobs did not disagree that they loom as battlegrounds. "Yeah, you've got to play defense, too. Yes we do. Yes we do."