Trump to tout record on crime, immigration in Long Island visit

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is expected to use his visit to Long Island on Friday to tout a national drop in violent crime, but the Garden City event during a critical election year will also likely touch on his immigration crackdown as he looks to gin up support for local GOP candidates on two issues that have propelled his party’s recent victories.

White House officials have said Friday’s event at the Nassau County Police Department’s training center will focus on the release of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s annual crime statistics report. But political analysts say Trump will likely look to rally support for GOP gubernatorial nominee Bruce Blakeman and other Long Island Republican candidates by presenting a tough on crime and tough on immigration enforcement message.

"It’s not the first time that Trump has gone to Long Island to push a law-and-order agenda," said Larry Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies, noting Trump’s 2024 campaign rally at the Nassau Coliseum, his 2018 appearance in Bethpage for a roundtable on the MS-13 gang and a 2017 stop at Suffolk Community College to talk about his immigration enforcement plans.

Trump is scheduled to land in New York on the same day Nassau and 11 other counties must submit their plans to the state for terminating cooperation agreements that allowed local officers to work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in assisting the president’s mass deportation agenda.

The State Legislature in May passed a law banning the so-called Section 287(g) agreements, and counties have until Aug. 25 to fully comply. But Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, has vowed to fight the mandate and has made Nassau’s cooperation with ICE a central part of his campaign messaging.

Border security

While Trump has been grappling with record-low approval ratings, and polls show growing concern among voters over the state of the economy, a Newsday/Siena College poll released in July found Trump continued to poll strong on the issue of border security.

More than half of Long Island respondents — 53% — said they approved of Trump’s ability to secure the U.S. southern border, compared with 37% who said they disapproved.

Levy said the visit is likely meant to "quell some of the concerns seeping out of competitive Republican campaigns that [Trump] is not doing enough to focus on issues people care about."

"Even though affordability is the top of the list, crime is often a close second, including among swing suburban voters," Levy said. "But the question is whether these voters are so down on President Donald Trump, judging by his low approval ratings, that they really won’t hear what he’s talking about."

Republican campaign strategist and pollster Michael Dawidziak, of Bohemia, said the event could provide a boost to Blakeman by focusing on an issue important to Long Island voters.

"Suburbia cares about having safe neighborhoods," Dawidziak said. "Anything that speaks to what we’re doing to strengthen law enforcement, that all helps."

Expect protests

Meanwhile, Democrats plan to counter Trump’s message with a protest outside the venue that will draw attention to "skyrocketing prices," according to a flyer that depicts Trump and Blakeman next to images of a gas pump and groceries.

Trump’s visit comes as national crime rates continue to decline in major cities, with Trump expected to report a record year-to-year dip in violent crime last year, according to a White House official. Trump is expected to credit some of the decrease to his surge of federal law enforcement officers and national guard troops in Democrat-run cities like Washington, D.C. and Memphis, Tennessee.

But crime policy experts contend that violent crime rates have been declining since the pandemic, with various factors playing into the decline, including technology aiding crime enforcement efforts and community-based anti-violence programs helping at-risk individuals.

"In places that had federal intervention, and in places that didn't have federal intervention, we saw crime go down," Thaddeus Johnson, a senior fellow at the Council on Criminal Justice, said in a phone interview. "In places that had well-structured, coordinated, community violence intervention groups, and those that didn't have tightly coordinated programs, we saw crime go down in those areas as well too. It’s something we’re seeing across the nation ... it’s one of those things where everybody can take the credit, and nobody can take credit."

A recent study by the Council, published in July, projected that "the year-end 2025 homicide rate would likely be the lowest since 1900" once the FBI releases its data report.

Ryan Radulovacki, a spokesman for Gov. Kathy Hochul's campaign, told Newsday in a statement that Blakeman "let Trump’s masked ICE agents abuse Long Islanders’ rights, and now he’s welcoming Trump to town to check out his handiwork. New Yorkers and their families want no part of Blakeman and Trump’s dangerous MAGA agenda."

Nassau GOP Chairman Joe Cairo in a phone interview said Trump chose Nassau to reveal the FBI’s statistics because "he knows he needs partners in New York like Bruce Blakeman who share his priorities of cracking down on crime and making New York safe."

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.