Can Trump's primary winning streak extend to the general election on Long Island?

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump racked up a string of political victories in Republican primaries this past month — helping MAGA loyalists defeat incumbent critics — a trend he was eager to note during a recent New York campaign rally.

“We knocked out everybody,” Trump said during a May 22 campaign event for Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in Rockland County.

In May, Trump-endorsed candidates defeated Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a four-term senator who at times has been critical of the president’s rhetoric; Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a two-term senator who voted to uphold Trump’s 2021 impeachment over the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, a seven-term House member who often voted against Trump’s agenda and was a leader in the push to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. 

But political analysts contend that while Trump’s victories underscore his continued stronghold over the Republican Party, his MAGA seal of approval will be put to a real test in November’s midterm general election. That's historically when a president's party experiences major losses, and when a broader electorate means MAGA purity tests matter less to voters in battleground districts. That includes areas such as Long Island, where independents and crossover voters tend to lean moderate in their political views.

“If you have a deep red district, then yeah, the primary victory is going to mean good things for your general election, but if you are running in a blue district or a purple swing district like on Long Island, then the primary victory is absolutely meaningless, because all you did was get the votes of the people who are going to vote for you anyway come November,” said Mike Dawidziak, a pollster and Republican campaign strategist from Bohemia. “Now, you still have to fight for all of those independents and possibly crossover votes from the other party.”

Heading into New York’s June 23 primary, incumbent Reps. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) and Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) are not facing primary challenges, but the Republican primary candidates vying to unseat Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) for the 3rd Congressional District and Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) for the 4th Congressional District are looking to align themselves with Trump. The president has so far only endorsed one candidate: former state Assemb. Mike LiPetri of Farmingdale.

LiPetri garnered Trump’s endorsement in February shortly after announcing his plans to run and was in the audience at last month's rally when Trump acknowledged him from the stage. LiPetri's rival, attorney Greg Hach of Oyster Bay, is billing himself as “the real Trump, America-First conservative in this race.”

LiPetri, who lost to Suozzi by a narrow 3.6% margin two years ago, has embraced Trump’s support in a purple district Trump won by 19,000 votes in 2024.

“President Trump only gives his complete and total endorsement to candidates who are proven capable winners — that’s what’s happening nationally and that’s what’s going to happen on June 23 with a Mike LiPetri victory,” LiPetri’s campaign manager Mike Falk said in a statement to Newsday when asked about Trump’s support.

Hach, in a statement to Newsday, questioned LiPetri’s conservative credentials and argued the endorsement was “orchestrated” by party bosses after the Nassau Republican Party picked LiPetri to run again.

“If the president, for whom I volunteer whenever he comes into New York, spent five minutes in a room with both of us, I guarantee he'd pick me,” Hach said. “The President has a great endorsement streak going. I promise he'll get a better ally when I break that streak on June 23.”

Trump has yet to weigh in on the 4th Congressional District primary between Hempstead Tax Receiver Jeanine Driscoll, 59, who is backed by Nassau GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo, and Marvin Williams, 64, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and minister from Garden City. In recent interviews with Newsday, both candidates said they identify as MAGA Republicans.

Former Long Island Rep. Pete King, a Seaford Republican, told Newsday that while Trump’s endorsement carries weight in the primary, swing district candidates will also have to lay out for voters their differences with Trump.

“The president has real strength among Republican voters, especially among Republican-base voters, and they're the ones who vote in primaries, so that's very helpful there, but in the general election it’s probably more helpful in a place like Indiana or Louisiana than it is in New York,” King said in a phone interview. “So to me, it's important to have the president's support, but also to show where you differ with him.”

Trump won both Nassau and Suffolk counties in 2024, the first time he won both in his three presidential campaigns. But in his second term, polls show Trump has grappled with record-low approval ratings as Americans struggle with inflation and high gas prices that economists link to the ongoing conflict with Iran — all factors that could drag down Republican candidates if economic conditions don’t improve, said Larry Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.

“MAGA is still a magic word in hundreds of congressional districts around the country, but in most of the predominantly suburban competitive seats, it’s anathema,” Levy said. “Moderate independent suburbanites tend to shy away from extremism of any type.”

Nationally, Trump has an average approval rating of 39.9%, according to an analysis of polls conducted May 14-31 by the poll-tracking website Real Clear Politics. That average is down about 10 points from his approval rating during the same period last year. In New York, Trump has a 33% approval rating, according to the latest statewide poll conducted by Siena College. But the poll, conducted April 27-30, shows he has a higher approval rating in the state's suburban counties including Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester, where it sits at 41%.

Democratic campaign strategist Hank Sheinkopf said Trump's low approval ratings won't necessarily hurt down-ballot Republicans come November, noting that the race between Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul for governor could increase Republican turnout as it did when former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin of Shirley lost narrowly to Hochul four years ago. Zeldin, currently serving as Trump's head of the Environmental Protection Agency, lost by 5.4 percentage points, marking the closest gubernatorial race since 1994.

"Trump will be secondary to Blakeman," Sheinkopf said in a phone interview. "You have two highly functioning political committees — the Suffolk Republicans and Nassau Republicans. [Suffolk GOP Chairman] Jesse Garcia is a terrific organizer, [Nassau GOP Chairman] Joe Cairo has a lock hold on the county, it's hard to imagine they're not going to get Republicans to the polls."

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kristen Cianci said Trump’s endorsement will continue to provide a boost to GOP candidates come November, arguing in part that the mega tax bill passed by Congress last year and signed into law by Trump helped lower tax rates.

“President Trump’s endorsement has proven to be a powerful force in key races and will do so again in November,” Cianci said in an email to Newsday. “It’s results, not empty rhetoric, that will inspire turnout on Election Day.”

Trump's endorsement streak came to an end June 3 when the candidate he backed in the Iowa gubernatorial primary, Rep. Randy Feenstra, a self-described MAGA candidate, lost to businessman Zach Lahn, a Make America Healthy Again or MAHA candidate.

Newsday's Billy House contributed to this story.

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.