Trump vs. Schumer: Can two New Yorkers with a history of conflict reach a shutdown compromise?

WASHINGTON — A shutdown was days away, and congressional Republicans and Democrats remained deadlocked on a short-term funding deal.

Nine months into President Donald Trump’s first term, he summoned the leaders of the U.S. House and Senate, including Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to the Oval Office, to hammer out an agreement.

Republican leaders at the time opposed a deal sought by Democrats to increase the federal debt limit and include disaster relief funding for states hard hit by Hurricane Harvey. But Trump ultimately agreed to include the two Democratic concessions, directing rank-and-file Republicans to vote for the short-term deal.

Trump and Schumer were pictured in the Oval Office in a collegial exchange — Trump smiling and gripping Schumer’s arms as the New York lawmaker spoke to him eye to eye.

"He could speak New York to the president," then-House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters after the meeting, when asked how the deal was reached.

Now, three weeks into the latest federal government shutdown, lawmakers and political analysts alike wonder if Schumer and Trump can still speak each other's language — deal-making — to break the impasse.

"I think they would both probably deny this, but I think if you put them in a closed room, they can find a way to work it out, because they are both New York bargainers, negotiators, whatever you want to call it, and I've seen it up close," former Long Island  Rep. Pete King, a Seaford Republican, told Newsday, recounting a different 2017 meeting at the White House he attended with Schumer and a bipartisan group of New York lawmakers.

Trump, the Queens-born president who has long branded himself as an artful dealmaker, and Schumer, a Brooklynite who rose through the ranks from state assemblyman to top Senate Democrat as a bipartisan dealmaker, are now locked in a stare-down, with neither showing signs of flinching.

They have shared brief moments of cordialness in the past, including at last October's annual Al Smith fundraising gala in New York where they were seen exchanging friendly banter. But they also have had a long combative political relationship, frequently trading barbs on social media and in speeches. 

Shutdown standoff

Schumer — who is calling on Republicans to support an extension of soon-to-expire health care subsidies in exchange for the Senate Democratic votes necessary to pass a short-term spending bill — said in a brief phone interview he wants to negotiate with Trump and Republican leaders, but cast House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) as the "roadblock." 

Johnson, a close Trump ally, has said he will not call House lawmakers back to Washington until Senate Democrats agree to a Trump-backed "clean" short-term spending bill. He and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) have argued that the subsidies, passed during the pandemic to help lower health premiums, should be addressed separately, but Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) have argued consumers will soon be receiving their premium notices for next year.

"It’s really Johnson who is the actual roadblock to getting this done," Schumer said. "And our hope is that Trump can push the Republicans to meet with us."

Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport), who has worked with both Schumer and Trump, told Newsday there's no disputing both leaders have shown they could reach a deal in the past, but he said a negotiation on the subsidies should occur separately. He noted some Republicans support setting an income cap to qualify for the subsidies.

"I'm sure they could come to a deal ... but it can't be an agreement between four or five people. There are big policy differences here, and they have to be worked out," Garbarino said.

Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) said he supports extending the subsidies before they expire but also believes the issue should be debated separately.

"Making concessions now would only reward more hostage-taking and set a dangerous precedent," LaLota said in a statement to Newsday.

Schumer and Democrats saw a potential opening for Trump to engage in negotiations on the subsidies issue, when the president told reporters in the Oval Office last Monday "we have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things ... with regard to health care."

Schumer said the claim was not true, noting there have been no talks between Democratic leaders and the White House since a failed Sept. 29 meeting but added "if he’s finally ready to work with Democrats, we’ll be at the table."

The White House press office did not return a request for comment for this story, but Trump has signaled he is prepared to keep the standoff going while making it as politically painful as possible for Schumer and Democrats.

Since the start of the shutdown, the Trump administration has paused federal funding for a number of blue-state infrastructure projects, including the Gateway tunnel project and New York’s Second Avenue Subway Extension. Trump has also vowed to ax funding for other "Democrat projects" and his administration issued layoff notices to more than 4,000 federal employees, with Trump saying the cuts were focused on "Democratic agencies."

Trump’s actions are a negotiating tactic familiar to Schumer, said Jim Kessler, a former Schumer aide who now serves as executive vice president for policy for the centrist-Democrat think-tank Third Way.

"There is a dynamic to shutdown debates that works like this — each side tries to inflict as much pain on the other side as possible to force the other side to relent," Kessler said. "The truth is, Democrats only have one tool at their disposal, and that's communications. Republicans and Donald Trump as president have a lot of tools. They can fire people. They can shut down different parts of the government. They can issue executive orders. So they have lots of tools to cause pain, and they're trotting them out to see if it changes the dynamic."

Kessler said he believes that as the fall open enrollment period kicks off, and Americans start to receive notices laying out increases to their health care costs, Trump and Republicans will likely be more open to negotiating a compromise around the subsidies.

"I think it's going to end sooner rather than later, because people's insurance bills are going to start showing up for next year, and it's going to look very bad," Kessler said of the projected increases.

Two dealmakers

Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban policy and planning at New York University, said while the dynamics between Trump and Schumer have changed since the president’s first term, the two have a shared history that under the right circumstances could result in a compromise.

"The one thing they do have in common is they understand how to cut a deal," Moss said. "That's a major reason they’ve both been so successful. Schumer has been a longtime legislator, and that's what legislators do, they find ways to cut deals. And Trump built his wealth by cutting real estate deals, and the truth is, deal cutting is what he's just done in the Middle East."

King said that Trump, "riding high" off the peace deal negotiated by his administration between Israel and Hamas and generally wielding the power of the presidency, likely feels he has less of a motive to negotiate with Schumer and Democrats. But, King said, "I wouldn't be surprised if somehow, it could be the odd couple again getting something done."

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.