Fewer major storms expected during hurricane season thanks to El Niño

A new Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts the fewest number of named storms in more than a decade and a higher-than-usual possibility that no major storms will hit the United States coast.

An estimated nine Atlantic Ocean systems will reach sustained winds of at least 39 mph – the threshold to become a named storm – which is well below the recent average of 14.4 named storms, according to an updated forecast released this week by Colorado State University.

There hasn’t been a year with fewer than eight named storms since 2014.

Only one system is expected to reach major hurricane status, and there is less than a 20% chance that a storm above category 3 hits the United States, the forecast showed. The predictions align closely with the National Weather Service’s earlier forecast that also predicted a below-average hurricane season.

The muted hurricane forecast is largely attributed to an anticipated strong El Niño, a natural climate pattern marked by warmer-than-usual water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It has been associated with weaker Atlantic hurricane seasons, having the opposite effect of the cooling pattern known as La Niña. While human-induced climate change is generally associated with more significant rainfall events, El Niño typically creates drier conditions in the Northeast. 

The low projections aren’t affecting storm preparedness on Long Island, where just one strong system can lay widespread devastation, according to officials.

“All it takes is one storm to make landfall, and it doesn’t have to be a named storm,” said Ryan Murphy, emergency manager for the Town of Southampton.

Murphy said the town tests its emergency communication systems regularly and closely watches forecasts that track storm paths. When a system is bearing down on New York, Murphy said the town begins requesting resources early from the state and federal governments because it can be difficult to transfer supplies to Long Island.

“One of the problems that we face on Long Island that not everybody else has to deal with is getting things to Long Island,” Murphy said.

When a storm is imminent, he said the town ensures its equipment is fueled up, clears stormwater drains, and coordinates with important locations like Southampton Hospital. The town also uses drones to take predisaster pictures for possible future FEMA claims. 

Oyster Bay Supervisor Joseph Saladino said the town purchased new high-axle vehicles for storm response and has rebuilt concrete “vaults” below town streets that retain stormwater when extreme rainfall events hit Long Island.

Town workers are deployed to areas that have historically suffered damage from major storms, and clear storm drains to minimize the impact of flooding, Saladino said.

“You prepare for the worst and pray for the best,” Saladino said.

And in Long Beach, the city has fortified its stormwater systems and installed pump stations to divert water in extreme rain events, said Scott Kemins, commissioner of the Long Beach Office of Emergency Management.

He said Long Beach developed a command center, on the top of City Hall, that serves as a centralized location for major storms. There, utility companies, officials and authorities can respond to a range of emergencies, including hurricanes.

“We took a lot of lessons learned from Sandy,” said Kemins, who was the city’s fire and buildings commissioner at the time.

The reduced hurricane forecast hasn’t affected how the city preps for the season.

“You could tell me I’m gonna only have one storm, but if that storm is gonna hit us, we have to be ready,” Kemins said.

Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's National Weather Service, said daily readings of a region of the Pacific Ocean used to track El Niño have been the warmest on record for more than two weeks.

The stronger those conditions are, the higher the chance that conditions associated with El Niño will take shape, including a quiet end to the hurricane season and high-level winds that break storms apart, he said.

“Typically in El Niño years, November is very quiet,” Rosencrans said.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially stretches from June 1 to Nov. 30. One named storm has formed so far this year.

When El Niño develops, it increases the chances for greater levels of vertical wind shear – changes in the direction of wind in the atmosphere that make it difficult for storms to form.

“We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” Colorado State University researchers wrote in their forecast.

Newsday meteorologist Geoff Bansen said the last three major El Niño events have led to “paltry years in terms of hurricanes.”

The warmer water in the Pacific Ocean facilitates a more active southern jet stream that moves toward the Atlantic basin, making the environment unsuitable for storm development, Bansen said.

“I don’t think there’s much of a doubt in many people’s minds at this point that it’s going to be one of the strongest El Niños ever,” he said.

By Joseph Ostapiuk

joseph.ostapiuk@newsday.com@OstapiukJ