Potential LIRR strike could create gridlock on LI's highways, unless most commuters work from home

Every day on average, half a million vehicles cross the Queens-Nassau border on the region's major highways — the Long Island Expressway, the Northern State and Southern State parkways.

Shutting down the Long Island Rail Road, if a possible strike becomes a reality Saturday, and sending at least a portion of the 270,000 daily weekday riders to their cars is expected to put a serious strain on roadways connecting Long Island and the city.

Robert Sinclair, of AAA Northeast, said the strike has the potential to make roadways between the city and Long Island "extremely crowded."

"All the roads going west are [already] jammed during a normal rush hour — and this is going to be extremely abnormal," he said.

Commuters and transportation experts see a potential gridlock situation. However, they say, the impact can be difficult to predict and could be less severe if people adjust commute times, to avoid peak rush hour, or work from home.

The MTA contingency plan

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s strategy to survive a potential LIRR strike next week relies on most commuters working from home, and those who can’t making do with limited options to get between New York City and Long Island, including buses and their own cars.

The MTA will have shuttle buses going from six LIRR stations — Bay Shore, Hicksville, Huntington, Mineola, Ronkonkoma and near Lakeview — to Jamaica-179th Street or Howard Beach-Kennedy Airport subway stations. Buses will run every 10 minutes on weekdays from 4:30 a.m. to 9 a.m. heading west, and from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. heading east. MTA chief financial officer Jai Patel said between 165 and 275 buses could be secured for the contingency plan, costing the MTA $325,000 to $550,000 per day.

Still, MTA officials have acknowledged the shuttles won’t be able to accommodate all riders of the busiest commuter railroad in North America, so they have been encouraging employers to allow workers to telecommute.

During NJ Transit’s union strike a year ago, "only something like 10% or less" of regular riders continued physically going to the office, MTA chairman Janno Lieber said at a board meeting last month.

The MTA has also urged riders to consider using Nassau’s NICE Bus, which has some routes that connect to Queens subway stations in Flushing and Jamaica, or to arrange to be dropped off at subway stations in Far Rockaway, Ozone Park, Kew Gardens, Sheepshead Bay and Elmhurst.

Sam Bowden Akbari, a spokeswoman for the Regional Plan Association, said the strike could mean a serious disruption for Long Islanders, especially those reliant on public transit and unable to work from home.

"NICE buses will see a surge, as will those flocking to the nearest subway lines, namely Jamaica, Atlantic Terminal, Woodside," she said. "The replacement shuttle bus services ... is helpful, but it can’t hope to meet the needs of commuters should the strike take place."

Mark Smith, a NICE spokesman, said in a statement Monday: "During the morning and evening rush hours, NICE will be layering in supplemental service into the existing schedules in the key transit hubs of Long Beach, Mineola, Great Neck and Freeport."

Impact on roadways

The MTA has warned that while commuters have the option to drive into Manhattan, doing so "will cause severe congestion and delays."

Sam Schwartz, a former New York City traffic commissioner who teaches at Hunter College, said this strike could have worse traffic effects than previous ones in 1994 and 1987, because the LIRR has more riders and serves an additional hub, Grand Central Madison.

Another LIRR strike, in 1980, which lasted over 10 days and coincided with a subway workers’ strike, led to people fighting "their way through traffic by car and by bicycle, by roller skates and by foot, and by other strange contraptions," Newsday reported at the time.

Carpooling was enforced — vehicles traveling over the East River bridges and along the Long Island Expressway in Queens were required to carry passengers. Still, bridges and tunnel crossings went up 35%, resulting in some major snarls, Newsday reported at the time.

Long Island’s population has grown about 13% since 1980, but carpooling has become less common, according to Schwartz — with vehicles entering the city on the LIE and Grand Central Parkway having about 1.2 people per car today.

Long Islanders plan

Massapequa commuter Steven Mormino said he plans on staying home, even if it means taking personal time away from work.

"I ride the trains every day, and I see how many hundreds of people are just on my platform in Massapequa," said Mormino, 62, a fire safety consultant. "I can't imagine all of us now trying to load onto buses."

At Penn Station on Friday, Malverne resident Jim Alger said he hopes to be able to work from home during a strike, but would consider NICE Bus as a last resort.

"I did that many years ago because I was cheap," Alger, 67, said. "That adds another hour on to the commute. It’s terrible."

Sinclair said a potential strike could be a painful reminder of the importance of the LIRR.

"The Long Island Rail Road is a very, very valuable transportation resource, and I think it will be profoundly demonstrated if it's lost because of a strike," he said.