Possible peak in Long Island summer gas prices, experts say

Long Island gas prices, which have risen 25 cents since early July due to reduced oil production, may be leveling off as summer's end approaches, according to AAA.

The price of gas has been climbing nationwide since July 1, hitting a 10-month high Monday after OPEC+ cut oil production by 3.6 million barrels per day, said Robert Sinclair, a spokesman on Long Island for AAA Northeast.

The reduced production primarily in Russia and Saudi Arabia, caused gas prices on Long Island to spike by 25 cents since July 1, Sinclair said. The average price for a gallon of gas on Long Island is about $3.85, according to AAA.

But those prices may have plateaued, Sinclair said. The average price of a gallon in Nassau and Suffolk counties has remained the same for the past week, which could offer a glimpse of relief, he said.

“There was less crude oil to be made into gas and that factored into gas prices. Everything is a wait-and-see for gas prices,” Sinclair said. “There’s generally some relief to be had after Labor Day and the end of the summer driving season when there’s higher demand. We could see prices moderate then, but we may be stuck at this for a while.”

OPEC reduced production to manipulate the market and increase profits, causing more pain at the pump nationwide, Sinclair said. The cuts caused the price of oil to jump from $69 per barrel in July to the current $82.50 per barrel, he said.

Further relief could come in late September when production switches from a summer gasoline solution that is more expensive to produce and designed to reduce evaporation during hot temperatures, Sinclair said.

Though Long Islanders may be paying more to commute and travel, the peak gas prices have still not reached last year's high of $4.10, Sinclair said.

AAA has noted that driving and gas consumption have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Many Long Islanders may also be cutting back due to inflation and increased cost of living.

Gas prices on Long Island can often run less than other parts of the country because of oil from the Gulf Coast, which supplies 45% of the nation’s fuel. Prices are higher in regions such as the Midwest or in California, both of which are more dependent on foreign oil and fewer domestic refineries, Sinclair said.

But those refineries off Louisiana and Texas also put gas prices at greater risk because of the potential for hurricanes and tropical storms, according to the Oil Price Information Service, which tracks gas prices for AAA.

High summer temperatures have caused many of the Gulf Coast refineries to reduce capacity, which previously could reach 10 million barrels a day, said the OPIS global head of energy analysis Tom Kloza.

“If you could guarantee we’re not going to have tropical storm force or hurricane winds in the Gulf of Mexico, I’d say it’s going to be clear sailing for the rest of the year. But that’s a real fly in the ointment,” Kloza said.

With AP

By John Asbury

john.asbury@newsday.comJohnAsbury

John Asbury is a breaking news and general assignment reporter. He has been with Newsday since 2014 and previously worked at The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, California.