Fertility rates in Nassau, New York take steep dive since 2011, U.S. Census data shows

The fertility rate in Nassau County fell to its lowest level in well over a decade last year, part of a steep decline statewide and driven by economic concerns, shifting norms, and a confluence of other factors, according to population experts and the U.S. Census Bureau.

In 2011, New York State's general fertility rate — the number of births per 1,000 females between the ages of 15 and 44 — stood at 60, according to the Census Bureau. By 2025, that figure had dwindled to about 50.

On Long Island, the fertility rate in Nassau County stood at roughly 52 in 2025 — the lowest figure since at least 2011, when the rate was roughly 57.8, according to Newsday’s analysis of the Census data.

Suffolk County saw its fertility rate decline between 2011 and 2025, but less than Nassau. The rate in Suffolk was roughly 58 in 2011, reached a high of about 59 in 2016, and then landed at approximately 55 in 2025, the data showed.

The decrease in fertility rates, which include the lowest nationwide since at least 1909, is due partly to changes in the financial landscape and to the expectations about when parenthood should begin, experts said.

Jake Hays, a research associate at the Pew Research Center, told Newsday that more people are putting off starting a family until "after they've completed their education and landed a job and found the right partner."

"So, Hays added, "delayed fertility and norms surrounding that are an important reason why fertility rates have been falling."

Teen pregnancy, he added, is another contributing factor in the declining fertility rate. The Great Recession between 2007 and 2009 was also a driver of the decrease, though researchers note the national fertility rates did not bounce back after that financial downturn.

In recent years, the fertility decline has entered the realm of national politics. Vice President JD Vance, the father of three children with his wife, second lady Usha Vance, and expecting a 4th next month, told a conservative conference several years ago in Washington, D.C., that it should bother "us" that "our people aren’t having enough children to replace themselves."

"We want babies not just because they are economically useful," Vance added, according to The Associated Press. "We want more babies because children are good. And we believe children are good, because we are not sociopaths."

A Pew Research Center study in 2025 found that while 53% of Americans felt that more child-free lifestyles would negatively impact the nation, 20% said they were in support and another 26% held a more neutral view. Yet more than half of Americans — 56% — do not want the federal government to play a role in improving fertility rates, the polling showed.

Despite the general fertility rate declining, Hays said, the average number of children born to women over their lifetimes has remained around two since the early 1990s, through the Great Recession, and so far in 2026. Now, he said, the question remains whether more women will actually have children later in life or none at all.

"What the future holds kind of just remains to be seen, but you know it'll depend on if people who are having children later in life, you know, still manage to end up having, you know, about two children on average," Hays said. 

With AP