Afghan pullout could herald U.S. comeback
A man holds a certificate acknowledging his work for Americans as hundreds of people gather outside the international airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Tuesday. Credit: AP/STR
By Cathy YoungAfghanistan’s precipitous fall to the Taliban after the withdrawal of U.S. troops has been a shocking and demoralizing moment for millions of Americans. The fact that it happened so close to the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, planned by terrorists harbored by the Taliban in Afghanistan, makes it all the more dispiriting.
Many commentators see this moment as a stark symbol of America’s decline into irrelevancy as a world power. But no one should rush to make predictions in the heat of the moment. This could also be the beginning of America’s comeback.
Some lessons of Afghanistan are clear: Democracy building in countries whose history, traditions and demographics are complicated and poorly understood even by American "experts" — and where our troops have to fend off aggressive armed militants — is not a task the United States should ever undertake. It’s a prescription for quagmire and ignominious departure.
But most exercise of American power does not involve armed nation building. It involves the protection of existing democracies — some thriving, such as Taiwan or the Baltics, some struggling, such as Ukraine. It is also primarily protection by deterrence — but, of course, deterrence depends on willingness to engage in military action if necessary.
The fact that China has used the collapse of Afghanistan’s pro-U.S. government to openly taunt Taiwan about the perils of relying on America as an ally and remind the defiant nation that it’s safer to appease Beijing shows where the challenge is. Such saber rattling should not necessarily be taken at face value (for the moment it is, more than anything else, psychological warfare against both Taiwan and the U.S.). But neither should it be ignored.
It is not for nothing that, in his Monday speech, President Biden noted that "our true strategic competitors, China and Russia" benefit from the U.S. being tied down in Afghanistan. This comment was addressed not only to Americans; it was a pointed message to China and Russia that we are not abandoning our global commitments.
Our mission in Afghanistan certainly shows us what not to do. We will learn in the coming months why the exit was so badly botched. (Biden deserves vocal criticism, but supporters of Donald Trump, on whose watch the U.S. boosted the Taliban as a peace partner, should sit this one out.) And yet, paradoxically, this exit also reminds us that for all its flaws, the American presence in Afghanistan was a force for good. It held off the bad guys for two decades and allowed large pockets of modernized civil society to emerge. Even now, the use of American soft power may curb some of the Taliban’s worst abuses and allow some gains to survive.
President Joe Biden talks about the situation in Afghanistan on Monday. Credit: The Washington Post/Bill O'Leary
It remains to be seen whether public opinion that has long favored a withdrawal from Afghanistan shifts toward opposing it in the long term. Even if it does, it certainly won’t translate into support for another Afghanistan-style mission. But it may well translate into a more positive view of American power. British foreign correspondent and analyst Edward Lucas has written that the fiasco in Afghanistan could serve as a wake-up call rather than an admission of defeat.
In a dark moment, such optimism may seem foolhardy, but it is also a much-needed note of hope.
Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a contributing editor at Reason magazine, are her own.
Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.
