Could Trump really win again in 2024?

As we approach the one-year mark of the Biden presidency, what should be unthinkable — a second victory for Donald Trump in 2024 — seems increasingly possible. How real a prospect is it, and what can we do to stop it from happening?

For millions of Americans, including many who are not Democrats, Trump’s departure from the White House on Jan. 20 was the end of a nightmare. Especially in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 invasion of Capitol Hill by a mob wound up by Trump and intent on overturning election results that he falsely declared fraudulent, it seemed certain that Trump was out of the picture for good.

Today, Joe Biden’s ratings are underwater, and polls show that a Trump vs. Biden election would result in a tie or a narrow victory for Trump — who leads decisively among Republicans.

Yet, three years is a long time, especially in this era of the unpredictable. It’s worth remembering that a hypothetical is not the same as an actual election. Many Americans who are now saying they would vote for Trump in a matchup with Biden most likely are expressing their discontent with Biden, who is seen as ineffectual and unable to get the country on the right track amid the still-present threat of COVID-19 plus inflation, rising violent crime and border chaos. Meanwhile, Trump is no longer the center of attention, and people who aren’t closely following the news are not getting daily reminders of his awfulness.

To say that a lot can happen by November 2024 is an understatement. Medical breakthroughs that reduce COVID-19 to a fully manageable problem would make a huge difference and alleviate economic woes. The crime spike, related both to fallout from the pandemic and to last year’s protests against police brutality and racial injustice, may settle. We may yet see Biden’s ratings go up.

But Trump’s baffling electability is also a symptom of America’s political and cultural polarization. For millions, Biden and every other Democrat are the enemy no matter what and Trump’s lies about a stolen election are unquestioned. Even many who don’t buy Trump’s narrative argue that his blatant attempt at election theft was no different than many Democrats questioning Trump’s presidential legitimacy because of alleged collusion with Russia.

It would be comforting to blame polarization and radicalization on Republicans alone, especially when the GOP remains hooked on Trumpism and in thrall to a new Trumpian breed of rabid populists. The reality, though, is that the Democratic Party’s increasingly powerful progressive wing — associated with anti-police slogans, school curricula that encourage students to view everything through the lens of racial oppression, and far-reaching attempts to redefine gender — is alienating large numbers of Americans who are not hard-core Trumpists or GOP loyalists. While Biden is certainly not one of the radicals, he is rightly seen as too willing to genuflect to them. What’s more, his dilemma is that he can’t stand up to the far left without alienating a large segment of the party base.

The best-case scenario for the nation is that out of the ongoing political crisis, new and fresh leadership emerges in both parties: a sane conservatism without Trumpism, a sane progressivism without excess. Failing that, our best and most realistic option is a Biden presidency that finds a more solid footing closer to the middle.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a contributing editor at Reason magazine, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.