Arab nations key to Trump's Gaza peace plan

Donald Trump may not have gotten this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, but even most of his most implacable critics concede that the Israel-Gaza peace deal is a major achievement for which he deserves much of the credit. For now, the news is heartening: The surviving 20 Israeli hostages are free, and both Israelis and Gaza Palestinians have a respite after two years of war. But will this be a lasting peace, with Palestinian statehood down the line as the Trump plan envisions? One may hope — but there are also good reasons to be skeptical.

Despite the accolades Trump has just received in Israel, where he got an ovation during his speech in the Knesset, many observers across the political spectrum agree that the deal may not be particularly good for the Israeli government; it took a fair amount of arm-twisting by Trump to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to go along.

While Netanyahu vowed to fight until the full destruction of Hamas, the peace deal requires Hamas to disarm and, in theory, to leave Gaza while receiving asylum in other countries with guaranteed shelter from Israeli retaliation. But how this will be enforced is unclear. At present, as the ceasefire begins and Israel pulls back its troops, there are already reports that Hamas is reasserting its military control and killing political rivals — and possibly residents accused of collaborating with Israel.

It is also worth noting that the deal included the release not only of nearly 2,000 Gazan wartime detainees against whom no charges were ever filed, but of 250 convicted terrorists serving lengthy prison terms for deadly attack on Israelis. Many will be back in Gaza.

The plan envisions moderate Palestinian governance and deradicalization in Gaza. Is this a realistic prospect? There is evidence support for Hamas on the strip has dropped dramatically, with many blaming the terror group for the miseries of war. But there is also little doubt that Israel’s tactics in this war fueled more hostilities; one needn’t accept the “genocide” label to acknowledge that the Israeli military often showed a deeply troubling disregard for civilian life.

The conversation about peace should also include reducing radicalization in Israeli society — including the growing clout of extremist political parties that embrace collective retaliation and adamantly oppose any Palestinian self-government in Gaza and the West Bank.

Trump’s peace plan depends in large part on cooperation with Israel’s Arab neighbors. These states’ willingness to normalize relations with the Jewish state is an achievement that can be genuinely credited to Trump — in large part, ironically, because of his reliance on his business relationships in the region rather than traditional politics and diplomacy. But whether this cooperation can endure and be effective remains an open question.

So far, signs of trouble are already there on Day One. On Monday, some two dozen leaders — including President Trump, European and Arab heads of state or high-level officials, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas — gathered in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt for initial talks on Gaza’s future under the current ceasefire agreement. Trump also secured an invitation for Netanyahu — but ultimately, Netanyahu did not attend. Officially, the Israeli prime minister declined because of an approaching Jewish holiday; some reports say that at least two high-level attendees threatened to bow out if Netanyahu was there. Either way, it’s not an auspicious start.

There is more cause for optimism in the Middle East today than at any point since Oct. 7, 2023. Perhaps by next October, we will know whether that’s good enough.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.