An Iranian Shahed exploding drone launched by Russia flies through...

An Iranian Shahed exploding drone launched by Russia flies through the sky seconds before it struck buildings in Kyiv, Ukraine, in 2022. Credit: AP / Efrem Lukatsky

It is increasingly clear that the war the United States and Israel are fighting in Iran, however long it continues, will reverberate not only in the Middle East but in other regions as well. It has already revealed the U.S.' strategic incoherence when viewed through the prism of another conflict: Russia's war against Ukraine.

Since Iran's Islamist dictatorship has long been a Kremlin ally and partner — and a supplier of the Shahed drones Russia has been using in the war in Ukraine — the immediate take was that the Israeli-American assault on the regime in Tehran was bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin and good news for Ukraine. But it turns out that the situation is more complicated. Iran's role in providing drones to Russia is much less important today than it was two or three years ago, since Russia now produces a domestic version of those drones. While Russia still has been receiving missiles and ammunition from Iran, losing Iran as a supplier will not make a serious dent in its ability to wage war.

On the other hand, Russia stands to reap major benefits from the spike in energy prices as a result of instability in the Gulf and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking off about 20% of global traffic of oil and natural gas. While the crisis will ease if Iran loses its capacity to strike vessels moving through the strait, it's unclear whether that will happen — or what will happen to Iran's own oil and gas reserves.

For the moment, the United States has already eased sanctions on Russia to allow at least some Russian oil to be sold to countries like India to close the gap in supply on the world market — and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that it may be necessary to "unsanction other Russian oil."

This move is especially shocking since it coincides with reports that Russia is actively involved in the war on Iran's side, supplying intelligence data on the positions and movements of U.S. troops. To put it bluntly: Russia is giving Iran information that may help kill Americans.

Yet there has been remarkably little outrage from the administration. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump shrugged off the intelligence sharing: "If they're getting information, it's not helping them much," he said of Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told CBS News that "the president has an incredible knack at knowing how to mitigate those risks." When asked whether the United States would talk to Russia about cutting off assistance to Iran, Hegseth said that Trump's "unique relationship with a lot of world leaders" allows him to resolve such problems.

But so far, instead of resolving anything, the president has bafflingly excused Russia's actions by pointing to U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine: "They'd say we do it against them."

Or not so baffling. Clearly, Trump is still hoping for a "deal" with Putin — not only a peace deal in Ukraine but a business partnership. While Trump said he told Putin Monday that he could help in the Mideast by ending the war in Ukraine, the overall effect has been to help the Kremlin wage its war of aggression.

While Russia is helping our enemy, Ukraine is sharing its invaluable expertise in intercepting Shahed drones — and the low-cost interceptors it has developed — with the United States and with our Gulf allies. This may turn to Ukraine's advantage if the Trump administration finally starts treating Ukraine as the true ally it is. But first, Trump and his top officials would have to remove their Russia-friendly goggles.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

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