4 years in, Ukraine has won by surviving

Russia's war in Ukraine passed the four-year mark on Tuesday. It's difficult to remember now that in the early days of the invasion, many people expected Ukraine to fall quickly after a heroic but hopeless battle in which its defenders were vastly outnumbered and outgunned.

What followed instead was a grueling fight in which the fortunes of war shifted several times: early Russian gains were followed by an impressive Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, then a shift in Russia's favor in 2023-24, then a stalemate. Most recently, Ukraine seems to have regained the momentum. The ongoing peace talks often seem meaningless, and no end to the war is in sight.

The Ukrainian people are still surviving unthinkable hardships. Yet, in an important sense, Ukraine has won and Russia has lost.

Ukraine has won simply by surviving as a sovereign state against impossible odds. Even if Kyiv is pressured into surrendering all of Donetsk province — Russian President Vladimir Putin's most intractable demand — Ukraine will retain its independence and continue to move toward integration into the West. Many regard the nation as the symbolic vanguard of the free world, and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is one of the most admired political figures in the world today. Despite some wartime restrictions on speech and on Russia-friendly political activity, it still has robust political debates and journalists unafraid to criticize the country's leadership. When the government tried to shut down two independent anti-corruption agencies, public pressure, including massive demonstrations, quickly forced the decision to be reversed.

Ukraine has also become a formidable military power — a particularly ironic outcome given that one of the stated goals of Russia's war was Ukraine's demilitarization. Though heavily reliant on foreign assistance, it has achieved spectacular success in cutting-edge drone warfare and is now successfully striking military targets inside Russia with long-range weapons of its own production. It recently trounced NATO troops in war games.

It's a stark contrast to Russia, which has been reduced to pariah status in much of the world alongside allies like North Korea and Iran. The influence Russia still has is due to oil and nuclear weapons. Its propagandists' bragging that Ukraine would fall in two or three days has become a joke. Its warships have been chased out of the Black Sea by an adversary with no navy. In 2025, Russian troops in Ukraine seized about 2,000 square miles of land while reportedly suffering nearly half a million casualties (killed, wounded and missing). There are harrowing reports of wounded Russian soldiers being forced back into action while still walking on crutches.

At home, Russia has lost nearly all the vestiges of freedom that had survived more than 20 prewar years of Putin's escalating authoritarianism. Once again, as in the days of the Soviet regime, undesirable writers are banned. Independent media have been exterminated and banished. The government is now trying to shut down YouTube and other platforms where uncensored journalism is still available. Political prisoners number at least 1,500. While polls show ostensibly high support for the regime and the war, there is plenty of evidence that this is mostly due to fear and apathy.

Putin wanted to destroy Ukraine, which he has long hated for resisting its dominance. Russian dissidents fear that he has destroyed Russia instead, leading it into a crisis of economic decline, political stupor and moral degradation.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.