Blakeman's burden is a heavy one
Nassau County Executive and GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, second from right, with his ticket mates, from left, Joseph Hernandez, Todd Hood and Saritha Komatireddy, at the New York Republican state convention on Feb. 11 in Garden City. Credit: Newsday / Howard Schnapp
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s still-early run for governor, and that of his newcomer ticket mates — Joseph Hernandez for state comptroller and Saritha Komatireddy for attorney general — carries a national partisan burden not of his making.
Even against Gov. Kathy Hochul, the Democratic incumbent who looked quite vulnerable in 2022, Blakeman and company don't seem, at this moment, to have the cards as his ally President Donald Trump might say.
The problem stems from deepening party polarization.
Only Democrats now govern from Albany. This tilted playing field isn’t news. Nor is it unique across America, for either side of the aisle.
When one party holds the governorship as well as control of both legislative chambers, it's known as a trifecta. Currently there are 23 Republican state trifectas, 16 Democratic state trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party has all three domains.
These trifectas can prove sturdy — Utah’s GOP dominance has lasted since 1985 — but they are not always unbreakable. In November 2024, Republican victories in the Michigan and Minnesota legislatures ended Democratic trifectas in those states. That occurred as Trump won back the presidency.
In 2022, Rep. Lee Zeldin, from the Republican redoubt of Suffolk County, came closer to breaking the trifecta from the top than any GOP candidate in three decades. But that was amid a midterm backlash against President Joe Biden when Democratic turnout lagged.
Around comes the cycle again. Facing the threat of a newly flipped House, Trump months ago directed his allies in Texas to gerrymander their 38-seat congressional district map in hopes of expanding the current House GOP majority.
Could this have happened without a trifecta in Austin? Could blue New York have joined in the national Democrats’ retaliation campaign by working to manipulate its 28 seats without a trifecta in Albany? Probably not. That's how key these state fortresses are.
The make-or-break House fight might have given Trump reason to favor Blakeman to run against Hochul, whom he does not seem hell-bent on dislodging. Before the Long Island politician was chosen over Rep. Elise Stefanik — a star to some Republicans — Trump's allies talked about how Blakeman on the ballot could help GOP House candidates in the region including challengers to Democratic incumbents in his home county.
Making congressional coattails a priority seems to make more sense for Washington strategists than embarking on an expensive and difficult odyssey to return the state GOP from the wilderness to its past glory. And if Blakeman loses, he can keep his current job through 2029.
Just months ago, top Republicans were pressuring Curtis Sliwa, their party’s nominee for New York City mayor, to withdraw in favor of Democratic ex-Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo. Whatever flaws Sliwa had as a candidate, surely some help from GOP funders and party leaders could have made it less of a party embarrassment, given the socialism and anti-Israel stance of the winner, Zohran Mamdani.
Mocked by Trump before votes were cast, Sliwa got 7%, Cuomo 41%. For Blakeman to win statewide, he’s expected to need about a third of the citywide vote while maintaining a grip on suburban and upstate support. Zeldin didn't reach that. Will Blakeman rely on anti-Mamdani sentiment to offset Democratic strongholds?
Politics can change quickly and shock the "experts." For the moment, it’s hard to see exactly how that will happen this year, in this state.
Columnist Dan Janison's opinions are his own.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
