With poll numbers wispy, Democrats will scrum to be noticed in debates
A sign outside the Knight Concert Hall at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County on Friday promotes the Democratic presidential debates scheduled for June 26 and 27. Ten candidates are to compete each night. Credit: AP/Wilfredo Lee
The larger and looser-knit of the nation's major parties will stage its first crowded presidential debates this week at a moment of rising antagonism in America between the red and the blue.
Last month the Gallup organization reported 31 percent of those surveyed called themselves Democrats, 30 percent Republicans and — crucially — 38 percent "independents."
Many "independents" are as set in their political views as those who say they are down with the GOP or Democrats. According to the Pew Research Center, 17 percent of Americans are "Democratic-leaning" independents, 13 percent are "Republican-leaning" independents.
In all, 28 states and the District of Columbia allow voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote. As of a year ago, the University of Virginia reported that 40 percent of voters in these party-registration states were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 28 percent independents.
That is reflective of longer-term trends. When it comes to the presidential horse race, however, candidate polling numbers are way more wispy, especially among Democrats, where much of the field remains relatively unknown.
Last week, for example, an Economist/YouGov poll showed ex-Vice President Joe Biden as first choice for 26 percent of Democratic voters who said they will vote in their state’s primary or caucus next year. Fourteen percent said they backed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and 13 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Maybe that predicts a "top tier" for the Democrats, but maybe not.
Consider that just one year before the 2008 election, polls found Hillary Clinton well ahead of rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards on the Democratic side, and Rudy Giuliani leading John McCain and Mitt Romney on the Republican side.
Like any incumbent seeking his second and final four-year term, President Donald Trump retains the privileges of power. Perhaps more than previous candidates, he has made the GOP his own and enjoys a kind of unity that the coalition-dependent Democrats might envy. Trump is brandishing a threat to voters of a bad economy and other terrible things if he is not reelected.
Much is made of Trump's historically poor approval ratings. According to Gallup, Trump's 61 percent unfavorable score on Election Day 2016 was the worst in presidential polling history.
But remember: Clinton's 52 percent unfavorable score was second-worst.
The who and where and demographic breakdowns behind these approval numbers may not predict the general-election outcome, but they do suggest the overall tone and substance of the primary debates Wednesday and Thursday starting at 9 p.m.
Just as the 2012 and 2016 GOP debates became memorably crowded, anti-Obama free-for-alls regarding immigration, the economy and foreign interventions, the condemnations of Trump in this week's event will be palpable.
First and foremost, they will be talking and appealing to those already in the fold.
Lesser-known candidates will scrap to create televised glimpses that could grow their images as anti-Trump icons. If anyone stands out, you will know it from the president using his Twitter feed to taunt and sneer at them with his special brand of churlish gusto.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
