Did former Rep. George Santos carry out a bizarre kind...

Did former Rep. George Santos carry out a bizarre kind of insider trading off his own movements? He was paid as an "influencer" for Polymarket, but the company cut ties in light of the new probe. Credit: Newsday / Howard Schnapp

Nobody should have been shocked to hear that George Santos began a new path to trouble shortly after President Donald Trump embarrassed other Long Island Republicans by cutting short the convicted congressman's 7-year sentence.

Santos, 37, who pleaded guilty to fraud and identity theft just two summers ago, now plays a role in the regulatory drama raised by the rapid growth of controversial prediction markets promoted and supported by the Trump administration and family. 

The Justice Department is reported to be taking a serious new look at Santos to see if he carried out a bizarre kind of insider trading off his own movements. The concept could be the stuff of a goofy George Costanza caper, flavored with a taste of Jon Lovitz's "liar" routine.

To start this real life episode, Santos posted online that he would attend Trump's State of the Union speech Feb. 24. Then he allegedly bet big on the prediction that he would not be present.

Minutes into Trump's speech, Santos posted: "Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! ..." Which makes sense given Santos' track record. When you can offer a bet on just about any event, why not make it something you control, like whether you show up? 

Offering a fake life story about his religious and education background and even the cause of his mother's death, Santos was twice nominated by Republicans for the Nassau-Queens congressional seat. He won the second time in 2022, riding the red MAGA wave to Washington.

The rapid discovery of his lies, and multiple investigations of his finances, led to his expulsion from Congress less than a year into his term. When Trump ordered him sprung last year, the GOP's Long Island House members, who lobbied hard for his expulsion inside the chamber's GOP caucus, were clearly distressed. Rep. Andrew Garbarino said Santos' victims "still have not been made whole, including the people he stole from and the voters he defrauded ... The less than three months that he spent in jail is not justice."

For his part Rep. Nick LaLota stated: "He should devote the rest of his life to demonstrating remorse and making restitution to those he wronged."

Well, Santos clearly isn't doing that. Nor did Trump seem to demand a pledge of good behavior. Upon the commutation Trump remarked that Santos is "somewhat of a ‘rogue,' but there are many rogues throughout our Country that aren't forced to serve seven years in prison." In the end, Santos served under three of 87 months.

The context of the new Santos scandal is striking. The Trump administration has shielded the expanded prediction markets from tougher regulation. And the Trump family has a dubious piece of the action. The venture capital firm 1789 Capital — where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner — reportedly made a strategic investment in Polymarket, the leading prediction business.

Santos was paid as an "influencer" for Polymarket, using his own platform to promote that brand, but the company announced it is cutting ties in light of the probe. Santos' SOTU bets were reportedly placed on another top platform, Kalshi (where Trump Jr. is a strategic adviser).

Now one can only wonder if Trump or anyone connected with the White House will intervene for a second time to get MAGA fan Santos out of the hole he dug. Someone, somewhere on the web must be posting odds on that possibility.

Anyone with common sense wouldn't bet the mortgage money either way.

Columnist Dan Janison's opinions are his own.

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