Janison: Lessons from NYC's House race

Rarely in the electoral world will you see as neat a pair of bookends.

Only four months ago, in a special election in western New York, Kathy Hochul pulled off an upset.

Democrat Hochul won in a strongly Republican 26th Congressional District.

Her predecessor was Rep. Chris Lee, a married Republican -- who resigned after it was discovered he electronically sent certain photos of his himself to strangers.

Tuesday, the identical pairing was complete when in a special election in Brooklyn and Queens, Bob Turner pulled off an upset.

Republican Turner won in a strongly Democratic 9th Congressional District.

His predecessor was Rep. Anthony Weiner, a married Democrat -- who resigned after it was discovered he electronically sent certain photos of himself to strangers.

A lesson from both races: Even voters of different demographics don't take it too well when their representatives in the House distract themselves with insanely narcissistic hobbies.

And just maybe, they'll go so far as to punish the offender's party.

But wait. The parallels -- and lessons -- go farther.

Last November, Lee had won the district -- one of only four in New York carried by John McCain in 2008 -- by a stunning 74 percent. His opposition was marginal, a guy named Philip Fedele.

Last November, Weiner had won the district -- carried like the rest of the state by Barack Obama in 2008 -- with 59 percent. His opposition was Turner, who at that time got little outside attention or money.

Another lesson from both races: Party organizations routinely make strong opposing incumbents even stronger by failing to mount significant challenges.

Of course, through the lens of the Washington-based national parties, almost exactly the same type of partisan spin and counterspin followed each special-election upset.

Last time, Democrats proclaimed the Hochul win upstate a repudiation of the House GOP's position on Medicare. They crowed that it was a litmus test for the nation, and certainly these were themes in the campaign.

But some Republicans pointed, with good reason, to the weak candidacy of their own nominee, incumbent Assembly member Jane Corwin.

This time, Republicans proclaimed the Turner win downstate a repudiation of Democratic President Obama's positions on the economy and Israel. They crowed that it was a litmus test for the nation, and certainly these were themes in the campaign.

But some Democrats pointed, also with good reason, to the weak candidacy of their own nominee, Assembly member David Weprin.

In the 26th CD, ex-President Bill Clinton robocalled for Hochul. Republicans had New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie tape calls for Corwin.

In the 9th CD, ex-President Bill Clinton robocalled for Weprin. Republicans had ex-mayors Ed Koch and Rudy Giuliani robocalling for Turner.

All of which leads to the last lesson: These races are multidimensional -- part global and part local, part substance and part style, part party and part candidate, part get-out-the-vote, giving different sides many ways to spin the results once they come in.

But most of all, no matter what else is going on in the world, voters don't like it when their congressmen get the wrong kind of exposure.