Race for Weiner's seat a low-stakes affair
Anthony Weiner announces his resignation from Congress during a news conference in Brooklyn. (June 16, 2011) Credit: AP
Try as they will, political analysts may find it difficult in the end to read any truly new or surprising national trends into the widely hyped race to finish former Rep. Anthony Weiner's interrupted term.
For one thing, the two-borough 9th Congressional District as we know it may not be long for the world -- making this a low-stakes affair as specials go. The winner on Sept. 13 -- whether Republican Bob Turner or Democrat David Weprin -- could serve a little more than a year before a redistricted New York map with two fewer House seats takes hold.
Party officials knew this from the outset. If he loses, Weprin keeps his Assembly seat. If he wins, but is then redistricted out, he could be well-positioned for Queens borough president. Turner drew 41 percent against Weiner in 2010, and has outside help this time. Still, the Brooklyn GOP's numbers remain thin, and the Queens party factionalized.
Complaints from the district about the Barack Obama presidency -- and polls indicating a tight contest -- do add suspense and interest. Remember, for example, that when Obama suggested basing an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan on the region's 1967 borders, Weiner tweeted: "Remind me again, why did the '67 borders change? Israel [was] attacked."
In the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, the 9th District was Hillary Rodham Clinton territory. Obama won it in the general, but 55 to 44 percent, only slightly better than his 53-46 national margin. It stands to reason that Obama's sagging approval nationally would be reflected in not-the-bluest of blue-state terrain -- and that the Turner camp would rhetorically paste Weprin to Obama.
For his part, Weprin portrays Republicans as out to crush Medicare and Social Security.
As currently contrived, the district strings together mostly majority-white but geographically disparate communities from Rockaway Beach to Forest Hills in Queens to Midwood, Marine Park and Flatlands in Brooklyn.
A Turner win would mark a riveting upset. Ironically, Turner couldn't then be sure the state's redistricting players in either major party would protect his incumbency. "It's last in, first out," said a Republican operative well-seasoned in redistricting.
A Weprin win would be standard. Registrants in the district included 195,984 Democrats, 62,423 Republicans, and 72,495 unaffiliated as of April. State Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs said that this race's even being contested "points out how volatile the political environment really is."
