Paul Manafort, former campaign manager for President Donald Trump, leaves...

Paul Manafort, former campaign manager for President Donald Trump, leaves the District of Columbia federal courthouse on April 19. Credit: EPA-EFE / REX / Shutterstock / Jim Lo Scalzo

Fevered speculation surrounds the ultimate meaning of consultant Paul Manafort's guilty plea and reported cooperation deal with special counsel Robert Mueller. 

President Donald Trump's former campaign chairman admitted to one count each of conspiracy against the United States and conspiracy to obstruct justice due to attempted witness-tampering, court filings revealed Friday.

Manafort's tenure at the top of the Trump campaign effort in 2016 covered a time period that has already attracted particular interest from Mueller.

That period includes the June meeting at Trump Tower with Kremlin-connected Russians that Manafort attended, withdrawal of the Ukraine-aid plank in the GOP platform, campaign aide George Papadopoulos' meetings and messages overseas, and WikiLeaks releasing Democratic emails allegedly stolen by Russian operatives.

But what Manafort will have to tell about all of that remains anyone's guess. As you would expect from a complicated investigation, the court processes come a drip at a time. This allows the White House to give its commentary and narrative without contradiction because Mueller is committed to not giving out what he doesn't deem ready for disclosure.

So Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House spokeswoman, was free to issue a statement saying of the Manafort plea: "This had absolutely nothing to do with the president or his victorious 2016 presidential campaign. It is totally unrelated.”

That may sound like hyperbole or wishful thinking given the frenzy of agitation expressed by Trump, his aides, and his devoted broadcast surrogates. But it is an acceptable position until proven otherwise.

It became almost an act of faith to say this was a big deal — or not — based on fealty or hostility to Trump. 

"It’s not that big a deal. Don’t get all hepped up about it," Trump fugleman Rush Limbaugh instructed his listeners.

"The fact that Manafort was convicted of the earlier charges at trial show that the case against him is not a witch hunt, and the fact that Manafort is now cooperating with Mueller will make any pardon seem like a cover-up," Ric Simmons, an Ohio State University law professor, told the Vox website.

Andrew McCarthy, a National Review legal analyst who seems skeptical but untethered, reiterated what he has stated before: "At this point, it does not appear that Mueller has a collusion case against Trump associates."

The significance of this plea will come clear at some point, just not yet.

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