Blue tsunami brings us to a Rashomon moment
Staffers cheer as results roll in during an election night watch party with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) on Tuesday in Washington. Credit: CQ Roll Call / Tom Williams via ZUMA Press
In the classic Japanese film "Rashomon," a samurai is killed in a forest. A series of witnesses give conflicting accounts of the event, each reflecting their subjective perceptions and self-interest. The movie spawned a phrase, the Rashomon effect, which refers to the unreliability of witnesses and the difficult search for objective truth.
The Rashomon effect is an age-old problem in American politics. It happens when a big election result spawns disparate analysis from different sides. The winner, be it a person or party, acts on what turns out to be a misimpression of the victory fueled by self-interest, and finds itself a loser in the next electoral go-round.
We've reached such a Rashomon moment once again. The Democratic Party's stunning success in the 2026 midterms was epic by any measure. So, too, could be the party's self-immolation if it misreads the moment.
The blush of victory led some politicians and commentators to pronounce the rebirth of a nation. "This is a new country," one experienced commentator said Tuesday night. Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin said the blue gusher signaled a "sea change in American politics."
Remember 2024? Two short years ago it was Republicans crowing about a new country, as politicos and analysts talked about how Donald Trump had created a new coalition that could keep Democrats out of power for a generation. Republicans were giddy, but Trump went too far and his overreach on tariffs, overseas wars and interventions, and immigration — enabled by compliant congressional Republicans — fractured that coalition and cost the GOP in races from coast to coast.
Democrats would be wise to read their tea leaves more carefully. There is a difference between running to something and running away from something. Voters in this year's midterms did not run to Democrats, they were running away from Republicans.
Two days before the election, a national poll by NBC News found that 38% of voters viewed the Republican Party favorably, and 40% approved of Trump. It's hard to win elections with those numbers. But just 29% of voters viewed the Democratic Party positively. That's an atrocious number. Voters, in other words, were not drawn to pull blue levers. They were repelled by the way Republicans were running the country.
Understanding that, and legislating and governing based on that, will determine whether this year's blue tsunami becomes 2028's red cyclone.
We've been here before. President Bill Clinton's aggressive push to reform healthcare and transform the economy following his win in 1992 led to the "Republican Revolution" of 1994. Republicans' attempt to dismantle government programs and force budget cuts with a federal government shutdown produced a reelection romp for Clinton in 1996. After President George W. Bush tried to partially privatize Social Security following his 2004 reelection and mishandled Hurricane Katrina and the Iraq War, Democrats swept to victory in 2006.
Part of the problem is us. We voters are a restless group, impatient, easily frustrated, at a hair-trigger all the time. Our country is just not working for too many of us. And the clock starts ticking on winners as soon as the votes are tallied. First among the fickle are young people, who backed Democrats this time after going for Republicans in 2024 and Dems in 2020. They could easily turn again.
Brooklyn Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, the likely next speaker, talks about being laser-focused. That's good, as long as the focus stays on the things voters said mattered most to them — affordability, accountability (meaning government corruption), and actual immigration reform. A large majority in the House could defuse the clout progressives had hoped to yield and allow Jeffries to pursue a middle ground that reflects the reality that victories by moderates in red districts and red states were largely responsible for the Dems' big night.
"Today begins the great American comeback," Jeffries said Tuesday night.
We'll see.
Columnist Michael Dobie is a retired member of the Newsday editorial board.>
Michael Dobie is a retired member of the Newsday editorial board.
