Dawidziak: Why swing voters are so prized

Election Day is Tuesday, and campaigns are scurrying to answer two vital questions: Who will vote and how? That might sound elementary, but it's anything but. The answers will make the difference in Long Island's hotly contested races. The political science spawned by the search for these answers is called "micro-targeting," and its application can mean electoral success or failure.

First, let's look at who will vote. It's an odd-year local election, and that means a low turnout. Experts are predicting between 20 percent and 28 percent. For the record, based on both polling data and past experience, I'm predicting 25 percent.

We know for sure who more than half of this group are. To employ some baseball terminology, 16 percent of Long Island's registered voters have "hit for the cycle" -- meaning that they have voted in the general election in each of the last four years. They come to the polls every year without fail. It's their patriotic duty to participate in this most basic right of democracy on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. We strategists put them in the "never miss" category and don't waste turnout efforts on them -- they are voting anyway.

The real micro-targeting challenge is in predicting who will cast the rest of the ballots. This is where turnout efforts will pay dividends, and knowing whom to target is crucial.

Past performance is the best indicator of future behavior, so the first thing we strategists look at is voting patterns. For example, if a person voted in 2007 but not in 2009, he or she would be categorized as someone who might vote this time around -- a perfect target for a campaign's turnout efforts. Demographics also come into play. More than 90 percent of the people who vote in local elections are older than 35. Of course, the Republicans are trying to get only their base out among these erratic voters -- and the Democrats are doing the same.

Events in Washington often play a part. Some years, Democrats are more disillusioned with their national leaders, and other years it's the Republicans. This year, the disillusionment -- which tends to keep voters home -- is evenly spread between the parties. So neither should have an edge going into their get-out-the-vote programs.

That brings us to the second question, "How will they vote?" Believe it or not, we know that answer for more than half the voters as well. Thirty percent always vote for the Republican and 30 percent always vote for the Democrat. This combined 60 percent are the "line voters" who would vote for Bozo the Clown as long as he appeared on the party line of their particular persuasion (no offense meant to the clown vote).

This means that in most places across Long Island, only 40 percent of the voters decide the result of the election. Those of us in the business have a list of names for these people: moderates, independents, swing voters, ticket splitters. Whatever you call them, they are the gold campaigns are prospecting for.

They're not easy to identify, which is where the micro-targeters really earn their pay. There's a science behind this apparent mayhem. We use all kinds of data -- demographic, family, historic, opinion polls -- to narrow in on these swing voters. A strategist working for a Democrat may look for an American Civil Liberties Union member who falls into the "might vote" category, while one with a Republican client looks for a National Right to Life member who "might vote." Those people will be targeted for turnout efforts.

So next time you want to complain about the amount of political mail or calls you're getting, try taking it as a compliment. You've been picked as somebody who has a good chance of voting, and whose vote is up for grabs. It makes you a very valuable and popular person. Don't squander the opportunity! Make a difference and vote.

Michael Dawidziak is a political consultant and pollster.