What went wrong for LI Democrats in the midterms

As soon as the New York returns from last week's midterms were tabulated, puzzled former colleagues in the House of Representatives asked how Democrats could overperform nearly everywhere in the country yet get clobbered on Long Island. How did a purple-blue electorate become ruby red? 

Just two years ago, the region’s congressional delegation was an even split between Republicans and Democrats. Come January, it won't include a single Democrat.

As chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015, I can point to several explanations for this jarring change.

First, a hefty disclaimer. I caution political operatives and observers not to rush to judgment about campaign defeats without a rigorous post-mortem. After difficult elections, we Democrats tend to turn our intuitions, our anecdotal observations, into tribal truths. The left proclaims we weren’t far enough to the left; the moderates insist we were too far to the left. But emotions — particularly those that reinforce our previously held beliefs — don’t fix political failure. And Long Island was a stunning failure for the Democrats.

We need smart diagnostics. We need data, not drama.

This election may have simply been a perfect storm: the convergence of an overly aggressive failed redistricting strategy, a unique dynamic at the head of the ticket, and a serious disconnect too many Democrats have with voter anxieties on crime. If we can understand that storm, we can learn its lessons.

The original New York redistricting map likely would have netted three seats for Democrats. Its aggressive lines (for example, extending my former Long Island district across Long Island Sound into the Bronx and up through Westchester County) were too ambitious for the courts to ignore. The map was struck down and replaced with a new one that made New York races much more competitive.

As for the dynamic, when Kathy Hochul became governor after Andrew Cuomo's resignation, she was forced to spend heavily in a Democratic primary and was denied the time to grow support and recognition with voters across the state. Meanwhile, her Republican opponent, Rep. Lee Zeldin, was based on Long Island.

Then there was the role played by the issue of crime. Nationally, Democratic congressional candidates prevailed despite widespread voter anxiety over crime. But the debate in New York is fundamentally different, prominently bookended by “defund the police” rhetoric and the fight over “cashless bail.” In counties like Nassau and Suffolk, those lightning rod issues eclipsed the best efforts of local Democrats to articulate tough and effective ideas on crime.

My favorite maxim in politics is: “You have to meet voters where they are.” To reclaim swing voters nursing real anxieties, Long Island Democrats must demonstrate that they can be both tough and fair when it comes to public safety.

Still, Republicans risk a misreading of the results on Long Island. They were a reaction, not a permanent realignment in the region. Long Island voters lean toward the center; they tend to course-correct. Republican gains in 2022 will be short-lived if the new GOP congressional agenda includes shutting down the government, proposing reductions to Medicare and Social Security, and allowing themselves to be defined by the ravings of a few.

But Democrats can’t rely on Republican excesses to reclaim the districts they lost. They need to perform an autopsy on the death of their connection with local voters on Long Island to figure out how these districts became a bright wash of red from the city line to Montauk Point.