What the Mamdani-Trump meeting presages

All eyes will be on New York City's incoming mayor and the president when they meet at the White House Friday. It should be quite interesting — and brings into sharp relief how after Zohran Mamdani's unlikely rise and stunning victory, reliably blue New York State now arguably lies squarely at the crossroads of the country's political, ideological and cultural struggles going into 2026 and beyond.

Let me explain.

Next year we’ll likely see Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul facing off against either Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik or newly reelected Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. While Mamdani and President Donald Trump’s names won't be on the ballot, rest assured they and their political movements will take center stage in the election.

Adding it up, that means the 2026 New York race will feature: one sitting Democratic governor, one Republican challenger, one democratic socialist New York mayor, one Republican POTUS, and two warring versions of American populism raging in our body politic.

Whether it’s Blakeman or Stefanik, either will need Donald Trump to have a shot at winning the election. But not too much Trump. Ironically, Hochul finds herself in the same position: She needs a heaping of Mamdani to win reelection — but not too much Mamdani.

Put another way, the GOP candidate needs to embrace a certain level of Trumpism to win, while Hochul needs to adopt some Mamdanism herself to be reelected.

How far should either side go?

Start with Hochul. She endorsed Mamdani weeks before the general election but had her share of awkward moments on the campaign trail. Since his victory, things have not gotten much better. Hochul panned Mamdani’s free bus plan and has defended herself against attacks concerning Mamdani's ties to the Democratic Socialists of America.

To win, Hochul certainly needs a healthy dose of the hard left-leaning, economic populist message that Mamdani rode to victory in NYC. But she also needs enough support from Long Island and upstate to prevail. It will be a delicate balance, and we’re already seeing early signs of Hochul teetering on the high wire.

Stefanik or Blakeman will face a similar balancing act. In 2024, Trump rode his hard right-leaning populist message back to the presidency. "I won on the border, and I won on groceries," he declared right after the election. A year later, Democrats across the country won resounding victories as Trump’s approval rating on the economy has dipped into the mid-30s. Trump argued that Republicans lost because he wasn't on the ballot.

But in significant ways, his policies — or their perceived failures — were. Meanwhile, real fissures in the MAGA movement are forming. Tucker Carlson's recent interview with Nick Fuentes has roiled Republicans by asking how much of Trumpism is built on white Christian nationalism that eschews a pluralistic society altogether.

If the DSA is a bridge too far for the Democrat Hochul, then a white Christian nationalist Republican Party should also be a bridge too far for either Stefanik or Blakeman. The state is not ready for either extreme.

The campaign to come here in New York points to a much broader ideological and cultural battle to play out in the rest of the country over the next several years into 2028. Mamdani's election swung open the door. The battle of the "two populisms" in American politics will have its epicenter in New York State, of all places, and we will have a front row seat.

This guest essay reflects the views of Christopher Malone, associate provost and a professor of political science at Farmingdale State College.