Corona $$$$

Daily Point

One event not canceled in D.C.

Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to be a guest at a D.C. fundraiser for Reps. Lee Zeldin and John Katko on March 23. 

The fundraiser was reported Thursday afternoon by NJ Hotline reporter Kirk Bado. The Point obtained a copy of the invite which seeks top donation pledges of $5,000 from PACs and $2,800 from individuals. Gifting those sums would come with a “photo opportunity.” 

Zeldin’s campaign spokeswoman said: “Right now, the Congressman’s focus is on working with all levels of government to contain coronavirus as much as possible.”

Pence is running the nation’s response to the deadly COVID-19 outbreak. Officials at all levels in New York have declared emergencies and canceled events. There’s  time between now and the end of March for things to change. But perhaps Pence thinks the coronavirus will be history by then, or the White House hasn’t gotten the message about the seriousness of the situation.

—Mark Chiusano @mjchiusano

Talking Point

Coronavirus infects the state budget

For Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, the health of New Yorkers is the primary concern related to the spread of coronavirus. But the health of the state’s budget is a big concern, too. 

And next year’s budget, already vulnerable, is truly ailing now. 

“The loss of revenue to the state government right now is incalculable …. that stock market drop alone, you can not calculate it,” Cuomo said Thursday afternoon of the coronavirus impact.

Cuomo is contending with a $6 billion deficit in the 2021 budget he and legislators are working to finalize. Now, a huge drop in stock prices could kill Wall Street incomes, a big feeder of state coffers, and capital gains collections. Sales tax collections, too, will start to plummet as commerce slows thanks to stay-at-home orders and the cancellation of Broadway plays and athletic events.

Even the MTA coffers are suffering, with subway ridership down 18.5%, bus ridership down 15%, Metro-North fares off 48% and Long Island Rail Road numbers down 31%.

State Budget Director Robert Mujica told The Point on Thursday that he’s looking at the consensus forecasts from analysts to try to determine where things might be heading, but the truth is no one knows, and the consensus built before stock markets dropped 30% in two weeks is out the window. 

“Is there going to be some indicator worldwide that will stop the panic and normalize markets?” Mujica said. "And is this going to be a fast V-shaped recovery, like after 9/11, or a slower U-shaped recovery, like after 2008?”

New York will have budgetary troubles on the spending side, too, with unemployment insurance claims likely to climb and state spending on health care spiking. 

Mujica said the federal government will have to step in to help states withstand the financial shock, but Washington has not been great to New York of late.

“I’m very worried that we’re going to get the short end of the stick on everything,” Mujica said. “Whatever the federal government does has to be by formula, not discretionary, so New York gets its fair share, and it has to recognize the unique nature of New York’s challenges.”

Mujica has plenty of recently supplied reason to worry. Only $900 million of the $8 billion in federal money approved to fight coronavirus is to be disbursed by formula, and New York is guaranteed only $34 million of that pot, Mujica said.

—Lane Filler @lanefiller

Reminder Point

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Pencil Point

Fightin' Joe Biden

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Final Point

Trimming the fat

This typically is the time of year when Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and state lawmakers are working feverishly to put together the state budget by the March 31 deadline. Instead, Cuomo is the face of the state’s coronavirus response, with lawmakers also caught in its maw.

“This week in Albany that’s all that we’re talking about, that’s all we’re working on, that’s all we’re dealing with,” Assemb. Fred Thiele told The Point. “And the issues with the virus will intensify, they’re not going to lessen.”

Thiele, whose roots in Albany go back to the 1970s when he was an intern and, later, an Assembly staffer, said the coronavirus might short-circuit Cuomo’s habit of stuffing the budget with policy issues.

“I could certainly see a lot of these policy things like marijuana [legalization] drop off the table as part of the budget,” said Thiele, who spoke to The Point from the New York State Thruway as he drove back to Long Island. “As for the budget itself, what revenue projections are you going to make? We’re not really going to be in a position where you’re going to accurately assess the situation. You’re going to have to have some contingencies.”

Thiele foresaw a return to his early days when the legislature routinely passed a straight budget on time in March, dealt with policy initiatives during the rest of the session, then produced a supplemental budget at the end of the session in June that provided the funding needed to implement those policies.

“This is a different set of circumstances,” Thiele said. “But we might want to consider what they used to do in the old days. Get your basic budget done, then put some of these other initiatives toward the end of session when hopefully we have a clearer picture.”

If Thiele’s prescription comes to pass, it could mean the suspension of another Albany tradition: The Big Ugly. Chances are no one would complain about that.

—Michael Dobie @mwdobie