Take Hormuz by force? France and Britain have better ideas.
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper speaks during a virtual summit with about 35 countries to find a way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office on Thursday in London. Credit: Getty Images/Leon Neal
This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for Reuters and Forbes.
Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer have become two of Donald Trump’s favorite punching bags as the U.S. president tries to extricate his country from a war with Iran that has choked off a critical oil route, thus depleting the world’s energy supplies and destabilizing financial markets.
Yet despite his regular provocations over their (and Europe’s) sensible refusal to join his conflict and "take the oil" by force, the French and British leaders are key figures to watch as America’s allies try to see a way through Trump’s geopolitical miasma. The Old Continent had nothing to do with the US-Israeli war of choice, and yet the fallout is threatening their citizens’ safety, security and prosperity as diesel prices hit a four-year high and terrorism risks rise. Their efforts may even bear fruit.
The Anglo-French focus is on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a quarter of seaborne oil flows — not by force but via coalitions and diplomacy. Macron met this week with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a like-minded soul similarly eager to seal a ceasefire and de-escalation in a region from which Japan gets almost all of its crude oil. France’s president dismissed calls to send in the gunboats as "unrealistic" — even the U.S. hasn’t tested an Hormuz offensive yet — but Tokyo and Paris are open to an expanded naval role post-ceasefire.
Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper on Thursday hosted a call with counterparts from 40 or so countries (excluding the U.S. and Iran) to restore shipping through the strait. Her aim was to spread the net wide enough to bring in countries with open channels of communication into Tehran, and to establish a group that could eventually apply leverage through economic sanctions and only consider military options as a last resort.
"The reopening of Hormuz is now very much the focus for Europe in the short term," says Kristina Kausch of the German Marshall Fund. "There’s no appetite for doing this militarily without the U.S., so that means reducing Iran’s incentives to keep blocking it."
It’s a role reversal 70 years after the Suez Crisis, when the UK and France joined Israel in a misguided and ill-fated offensive to seize the canal from Egyptian control. Back then, America was the one trying to keep the region from going up in flames, with the Soviet Union and United Nations also pushing for the war to stop.
It’s also a step off the diplomatic tightrope that Macron, Starmer and other Europeans have been walking since strikes on Iran began at the end of February. Saying "this is not our war" has been smart politics with domestic voters and a fully justified pushback to Trump’s recklessness and bullying. But the U.S. appears to be belatedly realizing that arm-twisting and annexation threats are not the best way to get allies (and their military bases) onside after starting wars in their backyard. And Europe understands that it’s in this struggle, like it or not.
Its economies are at risk the longer the strait is blocked, with German growth potentially halving this year as a result. At the same time, the continent’s Gulf allies are being attacked by Iranian missiles and Russia has emerged as an obvious winner from the surge in oil prices, a loosening of energy sanctions and the depletion of weaponry that might be headed for Ukraine instead. The risk of domestic terror plots is rising, too, with French authorities charging and jailing four individuals over a foiled bombing attempt near the Bank of America Corp. office in Paris that was seen as possible retaliation for the war.
And while the U.S. commander in chief sucks up most of the airtime, other parts of his administration aren’t slamming the door to trans-Atlantic cooperation. It was rather discombobulating this week to see French-born Trump official Jacob Helberg visit Brussels and declare in between the usual criticisms that America "wants a strong Europe" and that the continent has "all the attributes of being incredibly successful."
The question now is what the potential coalition of countries on that London call — which included Japan, Australia, Canada and certain Gulf states as well as Europeans — might achieve, even with dozens of countries involved. Provided it doesn’t fall into the European trap of talking groups and communiqués, this is a chance to plug the more sober-minded Western allies back into a region where they’ve lost influence. The ultimate measure of success would be finding an off-ramp for Trump that does not involve escalation.
The big unknown, of course, is the price Iran hopes to extract from agreeing to a durable arrangement for Hormuz, Antonio Barroso of Bloomberg Economics tells me. Tehran might demand an easing of economic sanctions. Its insistence that Israel and the U.S. don’t attack again feels like an impossible demand. Iran says it is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the strait.
China, which also gets much of its energy supplies via the Gulf, could play a key role by offering incentives to Iran to de-escalate. Beijing has been enjoying the harm Trump is inflicting on America’s longstanding security ties, and there might be a chance here to step into the vacuum by helping the Europeans and Gulf monarchies. But would it be willing to offer security guarantees to Iran and expose itself to a possible confrontation with the U.S. down the line?
Regardless of the geopolitical uncertainty, everything is worth exploring that stops short of U.S. escalation or other nations being drawn into the fighting. There might even be some upside for London and Brussels, as the UK and European Union are pushed closer together again by the antics of the White House. Considering this year marks 70 years since Suez and a decade since the Brexit vote, that would be a welcome change indeed.
This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for Reuters and Forbes.