DeTrani: Tension within the North Korean leadership

Recent developments in North Korea have captured the attention of the international community. This attention usually happens when North Korea prepares for a missile launch or a nuclear test, as they did in 2006, 2009 and 2012.

These are relatively overt events monitored closely by the international community. Some say North Korea likes this attention and can only get attention when they're launching missiles, testing nuclear weapons or provoking South Korea. It's unfortunate, and it's happening now as North Korea prepares for another TD-2 missile launch, according to Pyongyang.

Another launch, after the failed April 2012 launch that succeeded in scrapping a food aid agreement with the United States and incurring additional U.N. sanctions, will further isolate North Korea and disappoint many who had hoped that North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong Un, would put North Korea on a different path.

His initial appointment of a senior party official, Ch'oe Ryong-hae, as the new director of the General Political Department of the Korean People's Army, was encouraging. For the first time, a civilian party official would oversee the military. At the same time, he replaced the minister of defense, Kim Yong-Chun, a confidante of his father and a hardliner, with a new minister, Kim Jong-Gak.

Most significant, was Kim Jong Un's retention of and reliance on his uncle, Jang Song Taek, a vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission and a reputed pragmatist with extensive exposure to China and the West, who reportedly was interested in economic reform.

These positive personnel moves and a cautious pilot program in the agricultural sector to encourage farmers to produce more by giving them a percentage of the crop, rather than a fixed meager salary, were positive signs from a new young leader who apparently realized that change was necessary.

But were these decisions too much of a threat to the old guard in North Korea? It appears that they were. Recent official media reporting from Pyongyang speaks of "disloyal" forces in North Korea. It reports on Kim Jong Un's visits with the Ministry of State Security, the Police and the Judiciary, in the context of weeding out those disloyal factions in the country. This type of official media reporting is unusual.

Reporting from Seoul, sourced to senior officials, states that Kim Jong Un just appointed a new minister of defense, Kim Kyok-Sik. This is the second minister of defense in less than one year. And this General Kim comes with a reputation. He reportedly was the commander in 2010 responsible for the shelling of the South Korean island that killed four, and the sinking of the South Korean naval ship that killed 46 sailors.

Does this appointment mean that Kim Jong Un will pursue a hard line military policy toward South Korea, especially now with a presidential election scheduled for December? And do the preparations for another TD-2 missile launch mean that Kim Jong Un doesn't care about the international reaction to another missile launch, and the consequences? It is hoped Kim Jong Un will withstand any pressure from those hard liners who want continued international tension and the status quo and not reform, to protect their equities. They don't care about the 24 million people in North Korea who deserve better. Much depends on Kim Jong Un to make the right decisions. Missile launches, nuclear tests and provocations against South Korea are the wrong decisions.

The international community should find ways to help Kim Jong Un make the right decisions.

Joseph R. DeTrani was the special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006, the National Intelligence North Korea mission manager from 2006 to 2010, and was the director of the National Counterproliferation Center until January 2012.