Why young men are abandoning Trump

President Donald Trump’s second administration has displayed a certain kind of masculine flex — the sort that reflects the populist right’s notion of manliness: a defense secretary who tells the world "F-A-F-O;" a health and human services secretary who publicizes shirtless workouts; an upcoming MMA tournament on the White House lawn.

The young American men who delivered a majority of their votes to Trump in the 2024 election, helping make the 45th president No. 47, simply aren’t interested. Polling commissioned for Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank in Washington often critical of progressives, showed Trump’s job approval rating plummeting to 32% among male voters ages 18—29. Additional survey data from Speaking with American Men, a project aligned with the Democratic Party and first reported by Puck’s Peter Hamby, found that just 27% of men ages 16-29 believe Trump is "delivering for people like you."

It doesn’t take a psychology degree to figure out what happened.

Generation Z men backed Trump over the Democratic nominee, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, because they felt insecure economically and believed the federal government was focused on misplaced priorities. Chief among their concerns were the high cost of living and U.S. involvement in overseas military conflicts. In Trump they saw an aspirational candidate who would reset the agenda in Washington, unleash a new era of financial prosperity and shrink American commitments abroad.

But as far as young men are concerned, nothing’s changed. Trump crowing that "I’ve won affordability" — insisting the past year has been a historic success — isn’t helping.

"Part of the reason why young people are so frustrated with Trump right now and are shying away from him is exactly the reason that they supported him in the first place," Rachel Janfaza, founder of The Up and Up, a qualitative research and media firm focused on Generation Z, told me. "They wanted change, they were frustrated with their financial situation and the cost of living, and he promised to improve their bottom line. And here we are, over a year later, and nothing’s changed — and in fact, many young people, and young men, feel like their life is worse."

Some post-2024 analysis pegged Trump’s support among young men at just under 50%. Other studies showed that the now-79-year-old president, the oldest in American history at the time of his election, garnered well over 50% of the male Generation Z vote.

Either way, Trump’s performance with this cohort was crucial to his victory and a marked improvement over his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, contests in which young men favored the Democratic nominee — Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, respectively — by healthy margins. Indeed, Republicans emerged from the most recent White House race hopeful that a realignment had taken place, that young men were more likely to vote for the GOP ticket going forward. That would be a major development. But now, support for the president among young men has collapsed. Not only have 18—29-year-old men soured on Trump; the breadth of their rebuke is striking.

Here’s what’s not the problem: Trump’s provocative behavior, his caustic rhetoric, his sophomoric social media posts. That’s all younger voters know; it’s their normal. Their critiques of Trump are less stylistic and more substantial.

Janfaza, sharing what she’s learned from the periodic focus groups she conducts with Generation Z voters, explained that young men view Trump’s tariff regime as a failure; oppose his use of military force in Venezuela and elsewhere, believing they were hoodwinked by pledges to favor domestic restoration over foreign adventurism; are repulsed by the administration’s aggressive deportation program; and see the president as uninterested in public service, but rather as a selfish leader who cares about cozying up to crypto firms to pad his personal bank account — and pursuing vanity projects, like the construction of a new White House ballroom.

"They see many instances in which he’s enriching himself and not focusing on the American people," Janfaza said. "They see him as a part of this elite that he spent years railing against."

The fallout has been so bad that it’s even hurting Vice President JD Vance, who hopes to succeed Trump and who at 41 is only a dozen years removed from the young-voter demographic. "A paltry 26% of young men would back a JD Vance presidential run in the 2028 general election, with 55% opposing and 17% unsure," reads the memorandum outlining the results of the Third Way poll.

The U-turn by young male voters parallels those by several other voting blocs that typically support Democrats but shifted toward Trump in 2024. Many of these voters are now dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy and other issues, and have steadily abandoned him over the last year. Young male voters are no different.

Generation Z men voted for Trump to get specific things done. They not only think he’s failed to deliver; they also believe he’s exacerbated problems they trusted him to fix. No amount of podcast-finger pointing at "woke Democrats" is going to compensate, even if the accusation rings true.

This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. David M. Drucker is a columnist covering politics and policy. He is also a senior writer for The Dispatch and the author of "In Trump’s Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP."